As we're all well aware, the game has changed.
Thursday, the NFL announced that the Wild Card contest between the Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Rams has been relocated to Glendale, AZ.
According to ESPN Research, it's only the second time in NFL history that a (non-Super Bowl) postseason game hasn't been played at a team's home stadium – the 1936 NFL Championship Game between Green Bay and Boston was the other.
More importantly, the circumstances in our region have been altered tragically.
As they've done consistently and historically in the face of community crisis, the Los Angeles Rams and Kroenke Family will be at the forefront of recovery efforts. Friday, they announced a $1 million donation to the Los Angeles Fire Department (LAFD) Foundation, benefitting both County and City Fire Departments, and American Red Cross.
On Monday night in Arizona, Rams players, coaches and staff will wear custom LAFD hats and shirts. Game-worn jerseys and select game-used footballs will be auctioned off with proceeds going to the support American Red Cross. More details can be found here.
Thanks for understanding that throughout this column, and across our platforms, we're making a good faith effort to keep the NFL Playoffs in a proper context while covering the team and sports that we love.
Been Here Be-4
Sean McVay said it loudly and clearly last Monday on his coach's show. He repeated it at the podium on Sunday after finishing a 10-7 regular season.
"We respect all, but we fear none."
They were the words of a head coach not concerned with seed or opponent, but only on bringing out the best in his roster over the next four quarters – and in the best case, next four games.
Would the Rams be favored against the Commanders in a 3-6 matchup this weekend? Perhaps. Probably. I assume so?
Was winning a Wild Card game against a rookie quarterback the goal? Absolutely not. Lifting the Lombardi is. And there's no path to accomplishing that goal without any of the Jenga pieces the Rams held out of action last Sunday against Seattle, a Week 18 loss that dropped them to the 4-seed and a playoff setup akin to 2021 when they won four games and a Super Bowl.
So I'm fully aware that in 2017 and 2023 when the Rams had the luxury of holding starters out of action, they also failed to advance in the postseason. In my view, Monday against Minnesota is hardly a referendum on the approach, especially given the horrific circumstances of the past week, but it is nonetheless incumbent on McVay and the Rams to prove themselves right.
Roster Math
And in a total reversal of the early-season narrative, the primary reason to like LA's chances in the NFC is that the 2024 Rams are arguably the healthiest team in the field.
Blake Corum's injury is a bummer. Thankfully, Ronnie Rivers is a veteran and got 16 touches and 82 scrimmage yards in Week 18. If he's needed in a backup role, he'll be sharp. And we all know Kyren Williams is a three-down back who plays more snaps than anyone at his position.
With the activation of safety John Johnson III this week (and linebacker Troy Reeder long since ready to return), cornerback Derion Kendrick represents the only Ram who could be categorized as a starter still unable to come off injured reserve, and the Rams have been living in that reality since he was hurt on the opening day of training camp.
A "home" playoff game to open the dance with a roster of this caliber and in this condition? It's nothing shy of a golden opportunity that does not come around often. No wonder McVay is raring to take a swing.
Home Away From Home
As disappointed as we all are to not be at SoFi Stadium on Monday, the home of the Arizona Cardinals is a fascinating backdrop for this Wild Card matchup.
For one, it's where the Rams have won more games outside of Los Angeles than any other venue since returning to the Southland in 2016.
Secondly, Rams fans always turn out well there, and even on short notice and adverse circumstances, it sounds like they're rallying to do so again.
It's also where the franchise overcame incredible odds after a COVID outbreak in 2021 to win a Monday Night Football game on their way to a world championship.
Conversely, Minnesota has struggled there, having lost three in a row in the building including the most recent in gut-wrenching fashion in 2021 when a 37-yard game-winning field goal attempt sailed wide right in the final seconds.
But what I keep thinking about is how Week 2's loss this season – the first in Glendale under McVay and the first for the Rams since 2014 – was the low point of the 2024 season. The offensive line was devastated. Puka Nacua was on injured reserve. Cooper Kupp was knocked out before halftime. The defense didn't have answers for Marvin Harrison Jr. and Kyler Murray. The 41-10 dismantling was tough to watch.
Having already exacted a bit of revenge on the Cardinals specifically, in what proved to be the NFC West-clinching win in Week 17, here's an entirely unexpected opportunity to go back to that surface and demonstrate just how far this team has come since September 15.
What if the natural grass of Glendale proves to be the site of the Rams worst loss and most triumphant victory of the season?
QB1 or Done
Much of this week's football conversation centered on the Rams offense – what is it capable of and where does the truth lie between the 44 points scored versus Buffalo and the 44 put on the board in the subsequent three games?
Here are year-end efficiency ranks, for objectivity:
DVOA - 10 (Rush 11 / Pass 10)
Points per Possession – 14
And I'll add Offensive EPA Weeks 8-17, when the roster they'll put up against the Vikings was available: 10th.
Has Sam Darnold put together a better season in Minneapolis than Matthew Stafford did in Los Angeles? Sure.
But if you're picking teams for Monday night, who's the No. 1 overall pick? Stafford. The grizzled veteran who is the NFL's all-time leader in passing yards per playoff game (307.9) over the 27-year-old set to make his postseason debut.
We discussed that and more at greater length on this week's Between the Horns with Camryn Irwin and D'Marco Farr.
(Please understand that when this was recorded, we were unaware of the change of venue.)
Pressure Is a Privilege
Week 8 was a case study in pass rush, protection, and pressure.
Stafford was not sacked (though he did make a Houdini-like off-schedule touchdown throw); the blitz-happy Vikings defense hardly came after him, sending extras only 11 times on 34 pass attempts. Perhaps that's because Minnesota respected the fact that the 36-year-old led the NFL with a 105.2 passer rating versus the blitz in 2024, per Next Gen Stats. Stafford entered that game with three touchdown passes on his season and walked out of SoFi Stadium with a four-touchdown night.
Something tells me Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores won't be as conservative come Monday, and we'll concede that pressure has derailed Stafford in 2024.
Meantime, Sam Darnold was under heavy duress when he faced the Rams, pressured on a season-high 38 percent of his drop backs despite facing only six blitzes. Mind you, he was still excellent, posting the highest passer rating of his career at the time (128.8).
Last week in Detroit, though, it did not go nearly as well for the newly-minted Pro Bowler. The Lions destroyed the Vikings play-action-based vertical passing attack, blitzing Darnold strategically and deploying aggressive press man coverage (you might say a somewhat anti-Rams approach). According to the NFL, the Lions deployed 14 "zero blitzes." The Vikings quarterback suffered his lowest completion percentage and lowest passing yardage total of the season. Darnold did not toss a touchdown despite numerous opportunities in the red zone.
Your move, Chris Shula.
K-O-C-You in Two Weeks?
This next note is wild. But first, let's acknowledge that Super Bowl Champion (as offensive coordinator with the Rams) Kevin O'Connell is deserving of NFL Coach of the Year.
McVay won that award as a rookie in 2017 meaning he's been at it only eight seasons. And yet, Monday he'll become the first head coach since at least 1960 (and probably farther back in time, NFL Research just cannot confirm or deny it) to face at least three of his former assistants in a playoff game.
Think about that.
Not only has McVay made the playoffs six times in eight years, but in that relatively short amount of time, his coaching tree has become expansive enough (and those coaches have been successful enough) to allow for multiple collisions in the postseason. Even more
improbable, one of those former assistants – Zac Taylor of the Bengals – is in the AFC, so that meeting could have only occurred in a Super Bowl!
Soo… can we pencil in McVay versus Raheem Morris and the Falcons next January? (LA will travel to Atlanta in the 2025 regular season, it's worth noting.)
Strength of Victory (Not Another Tiebreaker)
Lions head coach Dan Campbell said something that I really liked, and no, it's not the soundbite you're thinking of.
Last season, he described the Lions as "scarred to perfection."
When I saw this graphic this week, it made me think that the Rams might be "calloused to perfection." 10 wins (certainly could have been 11) against the toughest schedule in the league.
Because the Rams won a "down" NFC West on a fifth tiebreaker … and they're hosting a 14-win team on Wild Card Weekend … and sporting a negative point differential on the season … some might try to tell you that Los Angeles wasn't deserving of the postseason.
Tell them to argue with Rampage.
Super Bowl > Pro Bowl
While we're playing the comparison game, might as well address the fact that six Vikings were named – not as alternates, they're rostered – to the Pro Bowl last week. And I'm not here to take issue with any of their selections.
But the Rams and their lone honoree Jared Verse have the opportunity to sweep the season series with Minnesota and keep their sights on a Super Bowl course.
For what it's worth, Pro Football Focus wrote this about Verse:
"The first-year pass-rusher provided 77 pressures for the Rams in the regular season, the fourth most in the NFL among all positions. Verse should be the runaway favorite to win Defensive Rookie of the Year."
Young & The Restless
Because we've been spoiled by the McVay Era, the playoffs are familiar territory.
It's worth remembering, though, just how young this roster is and how bright the playoff lights will be for a wide swath of this roster.
I count a dozen Rams contributors who will have a critical role in their first NFL postseason game on Monday.
By comparison, the Vikings just checked in as the oldest roster in the league by snap-weighted age data.
Dressed to Impress
At the other end of the career arc, the only thing more certain than tax day on April 15th is that many men will be putting on a Rams helmet for the final time this postseason.
Hopefully, several are interested in returning and able to be part of the 2025 roster.
Nonetheless, when the season is down to its final loss, it's become a tradition in this space to express gratitude for the blood, sweat, and tears they've offered the Rams.
This year, the group includes free agents to be like Alaric Jackson, Joe Noteboom, Demarcus Robinson, Michael Hoecht, Tutu Atwell, Christian Rozeboom, Hunter Long, Bobby Brown III, Tyler Johnson, Jacob Hummel, Neville Gallimore, Ronnie Rivers, Ahkello Witherspoon, Jimmy Garoppolo, Troy Reeder, and John Johnson.
It could also include veterans like Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Jonah Jackson, and Darious Williams.
Those are not exhaustive lists, nor am I implying anything other than awareness of life in the NFL and an appreciation for how brief the window of time is to enjoy the contributions of these 2024 Rams.
My preference continues to be to express admiration and gratitude ahead of time rather than retrospectively. There are career-long Rams named above, future Legends, Super Bowl champions.
It's been my honor to interact with them, and I'd love nothing more than to do so for many more wins, weeks, and years to come.
End Game
Flores admitting this week he was caught a bit flat-footed by the surprise activation of Puka Nacua was a good reminder that so much has changed since Week 8's 30-20 victory over the Vikings on Thursday Night Football.
I've curated an abridged section here that starts with the tight ends, but this is by no means a comprehensive examination of how the Rams and Vikings have been altered since October.
Tyler Higbee managed to score more touchdowns in three games off the injured list than the rest of the position group did all season. But like the Rams, the Vikings also have their TE1 back for the rematch in T.J. Hockenson, who did not play at SoFi Stadium in Week 8 at the tail end of his knee rehabilitation. I'll point out that both tight ends were victims of tackles by Lions safety Kerby Joseph last winter.
Other notable roster changes include:
Undrafted rookie Justin Dedich started at left guard that night for the Rams. Steve Avila will be there Monday.
Like Nacua, Kupp returned to the lineup against the Vikings, but both were used strategically, playing roughly half the snap count.
Cobie Durant started at corner. It will be interesting to see how opportunities will be divided between him and Ahkello Witherspoon on Monday.
Undrafted rookie linebacker Omar Speights was making his first start that Thursday night, and he played the first 22 snaps of his career on defense in prime time against the Vikings. Now he's a proven NFL starter, in my estimation – PFF has him graded 36th in the league at his position.
As for the Vikings, left tackle Christian Darrisaw suffered a season-ending injury against the Rams, and Minnesota moved quickly to acquire Cam Robinson at the trade deadline to replace him.
The Vikings will have starting linebacker Blake Cashman for the rematch. He didn't play in Week 8 due to turf toe, but has been integral to the success of a Vikings defense that's top five in the league by virtually any measure.
On special teams, the first placekicker selected in the 2024 Draft, Will Reichard, went 2-for-2 (and made both his extra point attempts) in Inglewood. At that juncture, he'd not missed a kick as a pro. Since, he's suffered an oblique injury that landed him on injured reserve and gone 10-for-16 down the stretch (though he is still spotless on point-after tries).
Conversely, I think we can all agree that the second placekicker selected, Joshua Karty, has saved his best for last. The Stanford product nailed 13 field goals in a row over the final five games (misfiring on two extra points), and just launched a career-best 58-yarder and a
57-yarder against the Seahawks. Both would've been good from 60-plus, easily. He was just named NFC Special Teams Player of the Month.
For all that's changed, including the city and stadium, let's just hope the scoring margin remains the same.
Though it may seem far-fetched, only three outcomes need to occur for the Rams to host the Commanders after all, next Sunday at SoFi Stadium.
In the meantime, LA Together.
