Happy holidays, once again, everyone. I hope you had a very Merry Christmas and are ready to launch into a new year.
In this Week 17 preview, we'll dive into scenarios and break down the rematch with the Arizona Cardinals.
But in the waning days of 2024, I think we should start with appreciation for the journey that has brought us to the penultimate week of the regular season with all the goals intact.
In the division race, the San Francisco 49ers have been eliminated. So, too, have the Cardinals.
There are two teams still standing in the NFC West – the Seattle Seahawks and your Los Angeles Rams. The separation between them is as razor thin as it was between Demarcus Robinson and Riq Woolen on the 39-yard walk-off winner from Matthew Stafford in overtime at Lumen Field in Week 9.
However, the reason the Rams control their own playoff possibilities are far more expansive than just one clutch play. And if they can see this through to the finish, after starting the year 1-4, the story of how the West was won in 2024 could be historic.
Merry Clinchmas
The Rams can only clinch in Week 17 with a win, but a victory over the Cardinals alone is not enough to win the West. By virtue of the Seahawks victory on Thursday in Chicago, the Rams need help to finish the job before Week 18.
So consider this your Rams rooting guide for the weekend.
LA must beat Arizona on Saturday night, and then at least four of these six teams have to win, as well:
The Cincinnati Bengals – Saturday versus Denver.
The Buffalo Bills – Sunday versus the New York Jets.
The Cleveland Browns (aka the Fightin' Andrew Sicilianos) – Sunday versus Miami.
The Minnesota Vikings – Sunday versus Green Bay.
The Washington Commanders – Sunday night versus Atlanta.
And, avert your eyes if you must… The San Francisco 49ers – Monday versus Detroit.
Why are there so many dominoes that need to fall? Because in the event of a Rams loss to the Seahawks and a tie at 10-7, the NFC West would be decided on the fifth tiebreaker, strength of victory. The good news is LA has a comfortable margin in that category (60 combined wins collected by teams the Rams have beaten compared to 51 by teams the Seahawks have defeated).
To clinch that strength of victory, the magic number is four – some combination of four wins by the opponents the Rams have uniquely defeated or losses by the opponents the Seahawks have uniquely defeated.
KEVIN!
Anyone old enough to appreciate a Home Alone reference?
Rams president Kevin Demoff filled in for the head coach on a short week and struck the perfect balance between not looking past Saturday but also elevating expectations for January.
If you missed the most recent Coach McVay Show, it's still very relevant going into the weekend.
Ready to Rematch
Revenge is a dish best served on Saturday in prime time, and listening to the Rams this week, it sounds like they're ready to prove they've come a long way since Week 2's low point, a 41-10 loss in Glendale, Arizona.
"We got our butt kicked and it happened quick," offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur said. "It was one of those things that you don't really want to experience, but it does happen from time to time… We didn't really get a chance to play our brand of football because of them. It's all credit to them."
"You were almost shocked how bad you played and to go out and put on that type of performance, it was embarrassing to be honest," admitted defensive coordinator Chris Shula. "Obviously, it hasn't been perfect since then, but what you think is this league is so hard and every single week you're going against great quarterbacks, great teams, and great schemes, just like Arizona is this week. It's how you bounce back from those adverse situations you find out who you really are."
We reflected on a lot of the improvements the Rams have made since September, and the personnel they've been able to add to their lineup, on the most recent Between the Horns with D'Marco Farr and Maurice Jones-Drew.
Same, But Different
As for the Cardinals, I also think it's worth a few lines to review how they're similar and different than the team the Rams struggled against in Week 2.
Let's start on defense, where linebacker Dennis Gardeck recorded a career-best three sacks and forced a fumble. He will not play on Saturday at SoFi Stadium after tearing an ACL in October.
Budda Baker will play in Week 17. The Cardinals All-Pro safety was everywhere against the Rams in the first meeting, and he just inked a new three-year contract extension as he wraps up another elite season in the back end of the Arizona defense.
On offense, Kyler Murray spun a perfect game (158.3 passer rating) against the Rams in September. He's been imperfect lately, however, with five total touchdowns and seven total turnovers in the five outings since Arizona's bye (the Cardinals are 1-4 in that span).
His favorite target that day was rookie first-round pick Marvin Harrison, Jr. The two linked up for 130 yards and two touchdowns, just a week after struggling to find their connection in the opening loss at Buffalo. They did all that in the first quarter! Harrison has not had a better day since, and recently a lot of the conversation in the desert has centered around his lack of production on 50/50 balls.
James Conner put a season-high 122 rushing yards on LA. He's questionable after leaving last week's loss at Carolina with a knee injury. His backup, Trey Benson, is also questionable with an ankle injury.
We know that Arizona will be missing both starting offensive tackles, as Paris Johnson and Jonah Williams both landed on injured reserve this week. (Williams also missed the first meeting with Los Angeles in Week 2.)
And given that we anticipate the biggest home field advantage of the year in Inglewood, that should translate to some silent counts for Murray and the Cardinals.
Might be a week to watch the Rams outside linebackers?
Winning Edge
Hey, look at that! We sat down with one Monday.
Michael Hoecht had some mic-drop moments on the latest Rams Revealed, including going to bat big time for Rams fans.
In The Cards
As the veteran mentor of his position group, Hoecht talked at length about up-and-coming contributors like Jared Verse and Byron Young. I'll point out that 24 of the Rams sacks in 2024 have come from players in their first or second NFL seasons. According to league research, that total is 11 more than any other team this year. In fact, Rams defensive rookies collectively rank first in the NFL in tackles, sacks, quarterback hits, and forced fumbles, while also ranking second in interceptions.
Here are a few final tidbits from my notebook that you might find handy as you watch on Saturday.
Verse missed four tackles in the first matchup with Murray and the Cardinals but has only been charged with five missed tackles in the last six games, total.
NFL Pro had an interesting insight on defensive captain Quentin Lake, who is one of only four defenders to have played 100 percent of his team's snaps this season. Lake has allowed -10.7 expected points added (EPA) when targeted, despite not having any interceptions this season (or in his career). If he gets one Saturday, come back to this space to celebrate, will you?
Last week, the Cardinals defense surrendered a season-high 243 yards rushing to the Panthers, including 152 to Chuba Hubbard, who took the game-winning carry 21 yards in overtime to beat them.
Arizona and Los Angeles have been flagged for the fewest penalties in the NFL this season (82), but the Cardinals were called for 11 infractions costing them 82 yards in their most recent loss.
The Rams are trying to win a fifth straight game for the first time since the tail end of their Super Bowl regular season of 2021.
After each of the last three games between these division foes were decided by at least three possessions, will Saturday follow suit or come down to the wire instead?
Per Next Gen Stats, Matthew Stafford has a 54.8 passer rating under pressure this season. That's troubling, and is a metric that has to progress to his mean for the Rams to get to where they're trying to go. Hopefully the confines of SoFi Stadium (high of 65 degrees and no precipitation forecasted) and the return of Tyler Higbee both help in that regard. I'll be looking for a more balanced target share in Week 17, as Demarcus Robinson (zero catches on two targets the last two games) and Cooper Kupp (three catches on six targets the last two games) get back to normal, as well.
According to NFL Research, Kyren Williams needs 157 yards rushing to become the third Ram with at least 1,400 yards rushing and 15 scrimmage touchdowns in a single season. Eric Dickerson (1983) and Steven Jackson (2006) are the others.
Watching the West
If everything turns up Royal and Sol this weekend, there will be no West to watch because the division will be clinched before Monday Night Football.
Ideally, this is our final installment of this recurring section in 2024, and in the Week 18 preview, we'll have a doodle or haiku or some other filler.
See you SATURDAY, everyone.
And just in case you're experiencing holiday cheer withdrawal, we'll leave you with a double-dose, courtesy of this week's Ricky's Ram Jam with Kobie Turner.
