The last flight of the regular season leaves LAX on Saturday morning, with the Los Angeles Rams bound for a Week 16 dogfight with the New York Jets.
If the Rams stay winning, they won't need to board another plane until the Divisional Round of the playoffs, at the earliest.
Three in a row; three still to go. They don't need any help to go from 1-4 to NFC West Champions.
Human Nature vs. New York
Oh, but we can all see a "trap game" from 35,000 feet above the Week 16 schedule, can't we?
After a rivalry sweep in Santa Clara, a long weekend to relax, a full week of first-place press clippings, two division home games on the horizon to finish the schedule…
This isn't a must win, after all. It's a would-be-nice-to-win.
It's been 80 degrees in parts of Los Angeles this week. Forecasted high in the Meadowlands on Sunday is sub-freezing.
Oh, and Christmas is right around the corner. Can't forget about that. So the temptation to exhale is only natural.
In case anyone involved in Sunday's outcome happens to be reading, let's throw cold water on any notion of a letdown.
Because I think back to the tail end of the 2020 season at SoFi Stadium. I've never seen a motivational mismatch like that one get turned on its head. The winless Jets had every reason to lose (and in particular, a specific reason named Trevor Lawrence). The 9-4 Rams had every reason to win, tied atop the NFC West with – I kid you not, the Seattle Seahawks (starting to sound familiar?).
We did our best to discourage a similar upset Sunday, on a new edition of Between the Horns.
First Shall Be Last
The surest way to fall victim to a trap game is to fall behind early.
I know we've touched on this before, but as we reach the final segment of the season it bears repeating: Sluggish first quarters have been the most consistent component of the 2024 Rams.
Last Thursday in Santa Clara, the Rams were held scoreless in the first quarter for the ninth time this season! According to NFL Research, LA is bottom five in the league in points, yards, third down conversion rate, and red zone efficiency in the first quarter of games this season. After that, the Rams are usually pretty good!
This is the quintessential jump-on-them-early game. Remind the Jets they've nothing to play for and that it really is miserably cold outside.
Jet Fuel
This game will feature four of the top seven most-targeted pass-catchers in the NFL.
Davante Adams (9.8) & Garrett Wilson (9.6) are fourth and fifth. Neither has clarity on what their future might look like in New York, though.
Cooper Kupp (9.4) and Puka Nacua (9.2) are sixth and seventh, and Nacua would be higher if not for missing half of Weeks 1 (injury) and 9 (ejection).
Get Your Goat
As for the quarterbacks, well let's just say they couldn't be less alike in some regards.
Matthew Stafford is reticent to say much more than he's contractually required to and seldom veers off script.
Aaron Rodgers has authored far more headlines than victories since leaving Lambeau Field, is the subject of a current Netflix documentary, and just this week said he'd consider taking a pay cut and mentoring a rookie!
But when it comes to life between the lines, there are plenty of parallels between them.
"You talk about changing arm slots, creating off-schedule, understanding what are the defensive structures and how you move and manipulate defenders? Both of those guys have been doing those types of things at a really high clip," Rams head coach Sean McVay said this week. "The ability to be able to make all types of throws, but then also have incredible understanding above the neck of all the things that involve this game. It's not just the eleven [players] on offense, it's all twenty-two. When you're looking at defense, what are the intents? What are the problems I need to solve? It's two greats and two guys that I look at as Hall of Famers."
With respect to their Canton clocks, I'd prefer they not retire the same year, for what it's worth.
Ancient History
Rodgers has had the better of the matchups between these former NFC North rivals. He's won the last four games against Stafford (as a Lion and Ram) and is 13-4 in his career against Stafford.
The four-time MVP also has handed the Rams plenty of heartbreak. The franchise's only win against Rodgers came at the Coliseum in 2018 (thank you, Ty Montgomery). Rodgers has been victorious in the other six regular-season meetings and also knocked them out of the 2020 playoffs.
Because of their stature and longevity – Rodgers is newly 41 years old – this reminds me a bit of the Rams and Tom Brady. The former Patriot had the Rams number for much of his career, including some painful postseason moments. Then, after he'd changed teams and conferences, LA found some success against Brady in his later years.
It's unlikely that Rodgers is going to play as many games in New York as Brady did in Tampa, so no time like the present, Rams!
Jet Setting
One thing tight end Colby Parkinson said Monday caught my ear: How similar the Jets front is to that of the Niners, and how that should help in the Rams week of practice and preparation.
Makes sense given the coaching history. Robert Saleh was formidable as defensive coordinator; not so much as head coach of the Jets. (Since his firing five games into 2024, you can make a strong case that the Jets have become the worst defense in the NFL statistically.)
For more on what Parkinson had to say about this week's opponent, including playing in sub-freezing temps, check out this week's Rams Revealed.
Big Rig Christmas
Just in time for the holidays, the most prolific receiving tight end in Rams history returns to the active roster to make his 2024 debut (potentially).
"He understands what we're trying to do on every play," Stafford said of Tyler Higbee this week. The nine-year veteran has been rehabilitating after suffering a severe knee surgery in the playoff loss in Detroit last January. "What an accomplishment to be able to come back from something like that and to be able to be available for us. His contributions are going to be between the lines, but also just out there on the practice field. His attitude is infectious and the way he goes about his business is amazing. We're glad to have him back."
I had high hopes for the Rams tight end room this season, and it was awesome to see them close out last Thursday's win. LA may not beat Buffalo without Hunter Long's scoop and score off the punt block. However, their collective production has been admittedly underwhelming: 42 receptions, 387 yards, one score.
Over his last five seasons, Higs has averaged 59 catches, 586 yards, and four touchdowns per campaign.
He clearly won't get to those numbers in what's left of this season, and I'm uncertain what role if any he'll have in this week's game plan, especially after missing Thursday's practice with an illness. Nonetheless, I won't be guilty of under-appreciating Higbee's contributions to the offense and organization again after going nearly a full season without his presence in the huddle.
New York State of Mind
A few final tidbits in no particular order…
As we discussed with McVay on this week's coach's show, the Rams have seven wins on one-score games, tying the franchise record for most in a season. Conversely, the Jets have seven one-score losses. In part because of some costly misses from former Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein (now on injured reserve).
Don't let the records fool you. Not much separates these two teams, especially not since Rodgers has been healthy. According to Sharp Football, LA has led for a mere 21.7 percent of their offensive snaps, the lowest rate for any team with a winning record.
Rodgers has faced the 2nd-lowest pressure rate in 2024 according to Next Gen (24.9 percent). The Rams get pressure 37.9 percent of the time (5th-highest in NFL).
Where the above comparison between Rodgers and Brady breaks down, aside from the disparity in rings, is the mobility of Rodgers. He just led the Jets in rushing with a modest 45 yards last week in Jacksonville.
"Obviously the off-schedule stuff has always been a big part of his game, and it looks like definitely these last three weeks he's really moving around a lot better," Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula said this week of Rodgers ability to extend plays. "Kind of looks like himself, and it's going to be a great challenge."
The Jets are blitzing at the 10th-highest rate in the league since Week 13. That plays into Stafford's hands. He's been superb against extra rushers. Per NFL Pro, he's thrown for 1,154 yards, eight touchdowns, and only one interception against the blitz this season, the second-most such yards in the NFL.
If the Rams are able to earn a Week 16 victory in the Meadowlands, and especially if they perform on offense, expect former Jets coordinator Mike LaFleur to catch a game ball from McVay in the postgame locker room.
Watching the West
As for the playoff picture, sorry for burying the lede.
By virtue of sweeping San Francisco, the Rams have made the West a three-team race.
At 8-6, they're tied with Seattle. The Seahawks host the hyper-motivated Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, then travel to Chicago for a Thursday prime time game, before finishing here in Los Angeles.
As for Arizona, the Cardinals stopped their free fall with a win over New England last week to get to 7-7. Next up, road trips to Carolina and Inglewood before hosting the 49ers in the finale.
If the Rams win out, they win the NFC West.
If the Seahawks win out, they're champions.
If the Cardinals win out, they still need Seattle to lose.
Once last thought: The Rams got a win at MetLife last December, then received more good news before wheels up on the flight home as the Seahawks were toppled at Lumen Field.
Might history repeat itself this Sunday?
