The Los Angeles Rams are rolling. The Miami Dolphins are desperate.

It makes for a prime-time collision at SoFi Stadium on Monday Night Football.

Both franchises have fallen well short of expectations at times this season, in large part due to injuries and missed time for key contributors.

But if you were to reset the 2024 season and start from the beginning, the Rams and Dolphins would be popular picks to deliver – and with good reason. Miami might have the best 2-6 roster I've ever seen. Los Angeles has stayed afloat long enough to get players like Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Jonah Jackson, and others back in the lineup.

Now they meet in a high-leverage moment in front of a national audience.

Defense Eats First

The Rams are still in the fight because of their defensive turnaround, which has been sweeping and stunning.

Since coming home from Chicago, LA ranks fourth in the NFL in defensive EPA; they are first in that category since the Week 6 bye.

That will happen when you score on defense in four straight contests.

In that span, opponents have mustered only 79 points against the Rams defense (19.8 per game). However, the LA defense has scored 22 points of their own (should be 23 if not for a missed extra point). That means over the last month, the Rams defense is netting out at 14.25 points per game.

Impressive, very much appreciated…and entirely unsustainable. Which is why it's time for the offense to take the baton and run with it. More on that in a moment.

D-R-O-Y + D-R-O-M + D-P-O-W

The more acronym awards the Rams rack up, the better.

As Jared Verse continues to dominate defensive rookie of the year odds, he's got company in the first-year trophy case.

Fresh off the longest defensive touchdown in franchise history, Kamren Kinchens' two-pick performance in Seattle was good for a landslide victory as NFC Defensive Player of the Week.

Miami born and raised, the 22-year-old from "The U" was our guest on Rams Revealed as he makes his Monday Night Football debut against the Dolphins.

Be Quick, But Don't Hurry

Here's the thing, though. Miami is not going to let the Rams tee off on Tua Tagovailoa.

His sack rate is lower than those of Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson.

According to Next Gen, he averages the quickest time to throw (2.39 seconds) in the NFL by a wide margin. The margin between Tagovailoa and the second-quickest (Andy Dalton, 2.55 seconds) is the same as the difference between Dalton and the 13th-quickest (Bryce Young, 2.71).

Where it gets dicey? The Rams have allowed the second-most yards per attempt and sixth-most EPA per dropback on throws under 2.5 seconds this season.

This feels like a game LA is going to have to win with coverage and tackling in space, not necessarily crushing the pocket like they've become accustomed to against recent opponents.

Now's the Time, the Time is Now

Next Gen also tells us that the Rams have generated fewer rushing yards than expected on 74.4% of rushes, the second-worst rate in the league. With their offensive line getting closer to full health – they'll be without starting right tackle Rob Havenstein this week – their best ground game should be in front of them.

At the midway point of the season, we ran through some areas where the Rams have to improve in order to go from good (4-4) to great (NFC West champions) on the most recent installment of Between the Horns.

Due or Done?

Here's the question that we won't know until the lights come on at SoFi: are the Dolphins about to come alive or take a dirt nap?

On offense, we can absolutely explain away the halving in offensive production from last year to present day, almost 14 points per game fewer than their 2023 rate which led the AFC. Tagovailoa has a 111.2 passer rating in his two games following a long concussion recovery. Last week, he only threw three incompletions in Buffalo. It feels like the Dolphins are on the verge of returning to form on offense.

On defense, though? This profiles as a bad unit – 28th in the NFL in defensive efficiency, and 27th against both the run and the pass. They are getting healthier on that side of the ball, and watch for the potential return of defensive lineman and captain Zach Sieler.

Strength against Strength

What the Dolphins have done well is lock up opposing receivers, allowing just 118.5 yards per game to that position group, the fourth-lowest total in the NFL according to the league.

Next Gen has defensive backs Kader Kohou (-4.5), Kendall Fuller (-2.4), and Jalen Ramsey (-0.7) all delivering negative EPA as the nearest defender in coverage.

Perhaps it's no surprise that the Dolphins' last two opponents, Arizona and Buffalo, have turned to tight ends as their leading targets. The Cardinals threw it to Trey McBride 11 times and the Bills to Dalton Kincaid 10 times. The Rams don't have that type of tight end production, but this could be the game (or it could be a matter of creating those types of looks for their "tight receivers" Kupp, Nacua, and maybe Jordan Whittington).

Best of the Rest

The Rams have two more games with a rest advantage: this Monday and Week 16 at the New York Jets (following Thursday Night Football in San Francisco).

Each of the Dolphins' most recent losses have come via a go-ahead field goal with less than 10 seconds remaining; this might be a critical week to have a healthy punter and holder back in Ethan Evans.

You'll recall the one game Tyreek Hill has played against the Rams. It was the greatest game in Monday Night Football history, while he was a Kansas City Chief. LA prevailed at the Coliseum in 2018 despite 10 catches for 215 yards and a couple touchdowns from Hill.

This was wild, from NFL Research: Jaylen Waddle had two receptions for negative-four yards and a touchdown in Week 9 at Buffalo. It was his first receiving touchdown of the year, and Waddle became the third receiver since 1950 to finish a game with negative receiving yards and a touchdown.

ESPN reports that since 2022 when Mike McDaniel arrived in Miami, the Dolphins (57%) and Rams (37%) rank one-two in percentage of offensive plays with motion at the snap. I

knew Miami did it a ton, but 20% more than the Rams who make a living off it? Something to watch.

Also from ESPN, on Monday the Rams will blow past 2,000 total defensive snaps played by first-or-second-year players this season, by far the most in the NFL.

Monday Night Football research has Cooper Kupp's 91.7 receiving yards per game in seven career MNF contests as the second-highest average in MNF history, trailing only Torry Holt's 94.9.

From Elias, and especially relevant given this week's opponent, Matthew Stafford's game-winning toss to Demarcus Robinson marked his 13th game-winning score in the final two minutes of a fourth quarter or in overtime, breaking a tie with Dan Marino for the second most in NFL history. Only Tom Brady has more, with 14.

Watching the West

Sunday brings two of what I believe are the most important games of the season for the Rams' playoff chances.

First, the teams directly behind them in the standings go head-to-head. The Niners (4-4) effectively add Christian McCaffrey to their offense at the trade deadline…again. They're 16-2 after their bye week since 2022. Will San Francisco become a buzzsaw once more? Or can the reeling Bucs (4-5) get back in the win column before their bye?

Then, winners of three in a row, the Cardinals have one more test before their open date as they play host to the Jets. Did Aaron Rodgers and New York figure something out in their win over Houston? They've had extra days to prepare since hosting that Thursday Night Football victory. This very well could be one of the games we look back on in January that shaped the NFC West and wild card races. Arizona (5-4) traded for pass rusher Baron Browning at the deadline to bolster its playoff push.

Finally, the Seahawks are licking their wounds, having lost five or six (including four straight at home). After their bye, Seattle goes to San Francisco then hosts Arizona. They still have road trips against the New York Jets and Cardinals, plus home games against the Packers and Vikings. The Rams might end up subtly rooting for the Seahawks to play the role of spoiler between now and when they come to SoFi in Week 18. Finding a way in overtime last week was massive.

Hope to see you Monday in Inglewood. Grab your ticket here if you'd like to join us.

LA Rams 2024 schedule