Hope you had a restful and flavorful Thanksgiving. My sincere gratitude for your participation in this space and your fandom for the Los Angeles Rams.
As the team descends on New Orleans, site of this season's Super Bowl, the ultimate goal feels far away. A winning record has thus far eluded the Rams, never mind the ambition of a championship run.
And yet, there's a very real path to not just a playoff berth, but a home playoff game. From there, anything can happen. To stay in the race, however, LA must bounce back in the Big Easy.
Only six more games are guaranteed, and I'm thankful for each and every one of them. But after a week of gratitude, it's time to get greedy. Let's see what more can be earned.
Where to Start
Last week's loss to Philadelphia was a reality check. The Eagles held up a Saquon Barkley-sized mirror, and the Rams could not have liked what they saw. I don't think we need to spend much digital ink on it.
You seldom win if you can't stop the run. It's similarly rare to come out on top if you cannot protect your quarterback. You're guaranteed to lose if you can't do either.
Rob Havenstein's return will help keep Matthew Stafford upright, and the veteran right tackle should never be taken for granted again (not that we ever did). The Rams allowed five sacks in Week 12 after allowing four combined in the four games prior. The Saints pass rush is capable but mercifully ranks in the bottom half of the league with only 25 sacks.
Complicating matters for LA is the return of their right tackle might be offset by the absence of their left, as Alaric Jackson has been out of practice with a foot injury.
Take a look through photos of the Los Angeles Rams on the practice field as they prepare for their Week 13 matchup against the New Orleans Saints at Caesars Superdome.
As for the tackling, there's no letup in this league. Barkley may be a unicorn, but Alvin Kamara is the first player to have at least 750 yards rushing and 400 more receiving in the first 11 games since 2019 (when Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey both did it), according to NFL Research.
"Kamara is as good as it gets and as versatile as it gets," head coach Sean McVay said this week.
"You go from a great back to another great back that's been doing it a long time," defensive coordinator Chris Shula added. "Obviously, they'll utilize him in a lot of different ways in the pass game, the screen game and running the ball."
That screen game is something to watch, in particular. The Rams have not played that dimension well this season – not on defense, nor on offense.
Saints Are Marching
For the second consecutive week, the opponent has extra rest.
The Saints are coming off their bye, following back-to-back home wins over the Falcons and Browns.
For more on how the Rams match up with an opponent that's already made a coaching change in 2024, Camryn Irwin, D'Marco Farr, and Stu Jackson have this week's Between the Horns.
Tankathon
I had the privilege of getting to know another undrafted member of the Rams defense this week – Jaylen McCollough.
The rookie from the greater Atlanta area played at Tennessee and is aligning in a few different spots on defense for Shula. He also barely missed a punt block last Sunday versus Philadelphia.
If you haven't had time to digest the latest Rams Revealed, allow "Tank" to explain his nickname and walk you up to kickoff.
Best of the Rest
My favorite part of Thanksgiving is leftovers, so let's help ourselves to a plate of what's left in the Week 13 notebook.
The Saints have won each of their last four regular season home games against the Rams. There's that little NFC Championship Game from 2018, of course. But just for the sake of the nugget: Week 10, 2007 was the last time the Rams went to the Superdome and won in the regular season.
Remarkably, the Saints have allowed at least 440 total yards in each of their last two games… and won both.
You'd think New Orleans might be in contention in a very flat NFC South, but the Saints only have one divisional game left and it's Week 18 at Tampa Bay. Thus, their long playoff odds. Conversely, the Rams will play all their NFC West rivals over the final four weeks. Hence, their window of opportunity.
Since the return of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp in Week 8, Stafford has the most passing yards in the league (1,408), according to NFL Research. His 12 passing touchdowns trail only Joe Burrow's 13.
In Nacua's record-setting rookie season of 2023, he earned a career-high 164 yards receiving at SoFi Stadium against the Saints.
Not at all trying to pile on Kyren Williams, who has surely had a tough week after fumbling in the red zone on the opening possession of the loss to Philadelphia. Based on what we saw the rest of the night, I cannot contend that the Rams would've won had he not coughed it up. Nonetheless, Williams has three fumbles, at home, in plus-territory this season and they've all turned into losses – Green Bay, Miami, and Philadelphia. I do think ball security could have flipped at least two of those outcomes.
On their subsequent possession in Week 12, the Rams didn't even run into a third down en route to the end zone. At times, they've been so efficient that third down hasn't factored into the equation. At others, we've really felt the reality of their 31.7 percent conversion rate on the money down, second-worst in the NFL.
"There are times where it feels like we go right down the field and put it in and there are other times where it just feels a little bit harder than it should," offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur said. "Third and long for anybody is not easy. It's just been especially hard for us as of late and really this whole year, but even the third and manageable haven't been to the clip that we're accustomed to. We have to get that fixed and we have to get it fixed fast."
This week's opposing quarterback Derek Carr has not defeated the Rams in four tries as a Raider and Saint. But he's been solid since returning from an oblique injury in Week 9 that cost him three games, with five passing touchdowns and no interceptions.
As for the seemingly ageless Taysom Hill, the 34-year-old had 138 rushing yards, three rushing scores, plus eight receptions for 50 yards in the New Orleans win versus Cleveland last time out. From the league, those numbers have only been generated one other time in the modern era, by LaDainian Tomlinson in 2002.
From NextGen, Jared Verse's 51 pressures are 12 more than any other rookie this season and are the most by a rookie through 12 weeks since Nick Bosa had 55 in 2019. His matchup against rookie left tackle Taliese Fuaga – selected by the Saints just a few picks ahead of him – should be a great one.
And via NFL Pro, the Rams have used motion on a league-high 79.4% of pass plays. They have generated seven yards per play on these plays, compared to a mere 3.7 yards per pass play without motion.
How The West Can Be Won
Finally, our weekly look at the NFC West and the slate of games that will influence the Rams playoff odds.
As readers in this space will already be aware, we've been fairly convinced that LA's best (and perhaps only) path to the postseason is to simply finish ahead of three teams: Arizona, Seattle, and San Francisco.
However, if Washington were to fall at home against Tennessee this Sunday – and the Titans just took out the Texans, so crazier things have happened – perhaps the door to the seven-seed in the Wild Card picture stays open a while longer? But for the Rams to play well enough to get the wins they need to earn a seven-seed, they'll almost certainly have to win the games that would also put them right in the West race. So, let's keep the concentration there.
After storming out of their bye with consecutive division wins, it's time to take Seattle seriously again. The Seahawks (6-5) go to New York to face the Jets in the hopes of staying atop the West.
Arizona (6-5) just lost in Seattle, and hosts the Seahawks again next week. In between, a trip to Minneapolis to challenge the Vikings.
And San Francisco (5-6) takes a losing streak to Orchard Park to battle the Bills on Sunday Night Football. The evening forecast in Buffalo calls for a low of 27 degrees and a 40 percent chance of snow.