If the goal is to reach the postseason, these are the wins that can get you in the dance.
Prime time in late November, under the Sunday Night Football lights at SoFi Stadium, against a division-leading opponent that has won six in a row.
Now that the Rams are back to .500, having won four of their last five, they're currently the eighth seed on the NFC wild card bubble and running second in the NFC West. They're in the conversation, but still well outside the playoff framework.
An upset on Sunday against the Eagles, and we can seriously consider their chances of contending in the NFC.
The Kids Are Alright
As you'd expect, this matchup is rich with subplots, and we'll touch on many of them in this preview.
I thought we'd start with the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year race, because this award could be clinched as soon as Sunday night.
Jared Verse is the clear front-runner, because he's delivered elite disruption against the run and pass. The first-round pick has a terrific running mate on his ticket, with Braden Fiske leading all rookies in sacks. This month, Fiske and Verse became the first Rams rookies to record strip sacks in back-to-back games in franchise history.
We also shout out Kamren Kinchens, not to be overlooked with two NFC defensive player of the week honors in the last three games.
Now, in comes Philadelphia with a couple of defensive backs who are looking to stifle the Rams passing game and maybe overtake Verse for rookie honors. Quinyon Mitchell went 22 overall in the draft and Cooper DeJean fell in their laps at pick 40. Both are grading out at a Top 25 level among corners. And since DeJean plugged in following the Week 5 bye, the Eagles have become a lock down defense.
Philadelphia leads the NFL in yards per attempt allowed in coverage. Last Thursday, no Commanders wide receiver had more than a single catch for 10 yards. Instead, it was tailback Austin Ekeler who had to lead Washington in receiving. It's going to be fascinating to see these corners match up against Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, both coming off 100-yard receiving days and three combined touchdown receptions in New England.
The outcome of Week 12, and the individual contributions of these rookies, should weigh heavily in the minds of voters for NFL Honors.
DWill to Win
As for the Rams defensive backs, they'll have their hands full with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. According to Next Gen Stats, Brown is averaging a career-high 13.5 air yards per target and leads the NFL with 18.7 yards per reception in 2024. Ominously, the Rams are allowing 14.7 yards per reception to opposing receivers, which is second-most in the NFL.
In moments like these, you're thankful to have Darious Williams, who was our guest on Rams Revealed to preview the showdown. Not only is he capable of providing the sticky coverage LA will need to combat those weapons, he'll be critical in run support against Saquon Barkley.
Say What?
A running back has not won MVP since Adrian Peterson in 2012, and (spoiler alert) this won't be the year either, but Barkley's got a strong case and might just settle for Offensive Player of the Year.
Barkley's offseason move within the NFC East has led to a career campaign. He's leading the league in rushing yards and scrimmage yards, and he's been especially devastating late in games. According to NFL Research, his 7.2 yards per carry after halftime are on pace to be the most of any back in the last 30 seasons.
He and the Eagles have amassed five straight games rushing for at least 150 yards and multiple touchdowns, the longest such streak since the 1988 Bengals, according to ESPN. If they do it again at SoFi, they'll tie the longest such streak in NFL history (six straight by the 1949 Eagles and the 1953-54 Niners).
So yeah, that's what the Rams are up against Sunday.
About the only shortcoming in Barkley's season is how many times he's been tackled on the doorstep, leading to his quarterback Jalen Hurts hawking a bunch of his goal line touchdowns. Per NFL research, Hurts' nine rushing scores over the last five weeks are the most by a quarterback over any five-game span in the Super Bowl era! With a rushing score in a sixth straight game this weekend, Hurts would tie Johnny Lujack (1950) and Justin Fields (2022) for the longest streak by a quarterback in NFL history.
Using our resident experts Maurice Jones-Drew and D'Marco Farr, we took a deep dive into the trenches on this week's Between the Horns.
Vic Fangio
As you'll see, part of that conversation included how the Rams might continue to make strides in their running game. Remember it wasn't until Week 12 of 2023 that Kyren Williams and their downhill approach really clicked into place. From that point on, they were a runaway freight train.
So far in 2024, it's been an underwhelming rushing year for the Rams, ranking 30th in the league in average rushing yards gained above expected (a Next Gen statistic). Barkley and the Eagles are fourth, for comparison.
And running the ball in this matchup is essential because of who is coordinating the Eagles defense. Vic Fangio has had all sorts of lasting impacts on the Rams and the league during the Sean McVay era.
For one, he was the architect of that fateful night in Chicago in 2018, another Sunday Night Football affair, that echoed into Super Bowl LIII and beyond.
Fangio also mentored former defensive coordinator Brandon Staley, who came to the Rams and leveraged Jalen Ramsey and Aaron Donald's superpowers to deliver the top defense in 2020. Next thing we knew, Fangio's coverage concepts had permeated much of the league, snuffed out explosive passing plays, and left Mel Kiper, Jr. wanting to ban two-high safeties.
Now, Fangio is back to face McVay and the Rams, while orchestrating what might be the best defense in the NFL. If explosives are going to be tamped down, then run game efficiency is essential.
"A clear-cut philosophy and identity, that's what I see his defenses always play with," McVay said of Fangio on his show this week. "Looking forward to the challenge. He's a heck of a coach."
Worst at First?
One thing we've been harping on in this space all season is LA's inability to grab early leads. The Rams have been shut out in the first quarter seven times in 10 games.
Can you guess the only team in the NFL that's been more sluggish out of the gates?
The Philadelphia Eagles. They've gone scoreless in eight first frames!
According to league research, the Rams -50 point differential in the first quarter is the worst in the NFL, while the Eagles -26 margin is 7th-worst.
Considering they have 13 wins, combined, I'm uncertain what the takeaway is here. But McVay told us this week in no uncertain terms that it's unacceptable.
"Here's what I would say: We need to convert on third down. It's as simple as that," the head coach told us Monday after the Rams went 2-of-8 on the money down in New England. "We've got to make those plays. We've got to be able to handle some of the movement (up front from the defense), and we've got to throw and catch, and we're capable of doing that. And I won't apologize for the expectations that I have."
To McVay's point, among qualifying quarterbacks, Matthew Stafford's passer rating on third down this season ranks ahead of only Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew. Certainly, that's a byproduct of the injury disruption along his offensive line and in his receiving corps. Now that there's some stability around him, a significant uptick in performance on third down will be essential to the Rams' chances on Sunday and in the second half of this season.
Kicking Ourselves
The Rams would have blown out the Patriots in Week 11 with a few more third down conversions and a 26-yard field goal at the end of the first half.
Instead, the franchise is back on the kicker rollercoaster, with setbacks on kickoff and punt team, to boot. (But we see you Michael Hoecht, with another blocked PAT.)
Frankly, it's going around the league, and rookie placekicker Joshua Karty is not alone.
Eagles kicker Jake Elliott, one of the most accurate in league history, missed from 44 and 51 yards, plus an extra point try last Thursday night against the Commanders. He's now missed five through 10 games, matching the most misfires in a single season in his career.
Future Hall of Famer Justin Tucker failed on a couple field goals against Pittsburgh, costing Baltimore another game (he's missed at least one kick in all four of the Ravens losses).
Evan McPherson spoiled the Bengals epic comeback bid last Sunday Night at SoFi Stadium with two fourth-quarter misses against the Chargers.
We'll be laser-focused on fourth down decisions, conversions, and place kicking in Week 12. Let's not take a PAT for granted.
Best of the Rest
The Patriots came after Stafford. Perhaps that was to be expected after the Dolphins sacked him four times. He handled it flawlessly, wasn't sacked, and left with four touchdowns and a clean jersey. It's unlikely the Eagles take that approach. They blitz at the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL.
His counterpart, Hurts, leads the NFL with 17 touchdowns and only two turnovers since Week 6 (when the Eagles returned from their early bye).
The Rams have 15 takeaways through 10 games this season, equaling their total from all of 2023, when they ranked 30th in the NFL.
Philadelphia, meantime, has forced 11 turnovers over their last four games (most in the NFL since Week 8), and scored 43 points off those takeaways.
Byron Young has sacks in four consecutive games, the longest streak by a Ram since Von Miller in Weeks 15-18 of the 2021 championship season.
Eagles receiver A.J. Brown (127 yards) and tight end Dallas Goedert (117 yards) had big receiving totals in Week 5, 2023 at SoFi Stadium. DeVonta Smith is on the injury report this week with a hamstring.
Puka Nacua is coming off his ninth career 100-yard receiving game. He's played 22 NFL games. According to ESPN, the only players since the 1970 merger to record more within their first 25 career games are Odell Beckham Jr. (15) and Justin Jefferson (10).
It's really difficult to find anything that undermines this Eagles win streak. They've been a buzzsaw. But since it's kind of my job to go looking… I did find something. They Eagles "strength of victory," a measure of the winning percentage of the opponents they've defeated, is .369. That is easily the lowest of any division leader, AFC or NFC. What's more, it's lower than the Rams, who have a strength of victory of .451.
Could penalties play a deciding factor on SNF? Philadelphia has a -145 penalty yard margin in 2024, which is second-worst in the NFL. Despite some costly miscues last week, the Rams have the sixth-fewest penalties accepted against them, and their +137 penalty yard margin is fourth-best in the NFL.
The Eagles have won seven of their last eight matchups versus the Rams, including all three in LA since the franchise returned in 2016. The Los Angeles Rams last home win over Philadelphia is an incredible throwback: Week 2, 1977. Chuck Knox and Joe Namath carried the day at the Coliseum, shutting out Dick Vermeil and Ron Jaworski, 20-0. The paradox being that Jaws was drafted by LA in 1973 and Vermeil would later lead the 1999 St. Louis Rams to a world championship.
Speaking of… all week and into Sunday Night, the Rams are celebrating the 25th anniversary of Super Bowl 34. More than 20 members of the 1999 team will be in attendance throughout the weekend, including Hall of Famers Isaac Bruce, Marshall Faulk, Orlando Pace, Kurt Warner, soon-to-be Hall of Famer Torry Holt, Mike Jones, our very own D'Marco Farr, and many others.
The Hunt is On
Because of the win in New England, and because of Seattle knocking off San Francisco last week in Santa Clara, the NFC West is once again totally available. In that sense, Sunday Night Football is not a "must win" at all.
However, it feels like the Rams have to win this week to keep the wild card door from closing.
If Minnesota beats Chicago on Sunday, that's nine wins for the Vikings, and they're likely out of reach.
If Green Bay beats San Francisco, that's good for LA, but the Packers would get to eight wins (plus the head-to-head over the Rams), and they're likely out of reach.
And if Washington gets Dallas this week, the Commanders also get to eight wins and have a very clear path to 11, maybe 12 wins. They'll be very difficult to catch.
So as always, we finish by turning our attention to the division. We wrote last week that Rams fans better get used to rooting for the Seahawks. Sunday, they host the division-leading Cardinals. Arizona's next three games will define the NFC West race: at Seattle, at Minnesota, home to Seattle.
As for the Niners, that home loss in Week 11 was a multidimensional gut-punch. They're banged up at the top of their depth chart. And they've got the toughest finish of any team in the division, with trips to Lambeau and then Orchard Park next. Plus games against the Rams, Dolphins, Lions, and Cardinals remaining.
The Rams currently have a 15 percent chance to make playoffs per ESPN Analytics. Independent of other results, that rises to 23 with a win and falls to 10 percent with a loss.
In summation, I think we'd all like to see the Rams get to the 10-win threshold to feel good about a playoff berth. Can they bank at least three of the next five (Eagles, Saints, Bills, 49ers, Jets)?
I think they can. And if they do, what a thrilling homestand to finish. Because Weeks 17 and 18 versus Arizona and Seattle are shaping up to be "do or done."
