One of the youngest rosters in the NFL in 2023, Green Bay flipped its whole season last year with a home win over the Rams. The Packers went from 2-5 to finishing 7-3, annihilating the Cowboys in Dallas in the Wild Card, and they had the Niners dead to rights in the Divisional Round, too.

Why not the same story this year, but in reverse?

The Packers face the Rams for the fifth year in a row (including postseason), the longest streak between the teams since 1988-97. But finally, the Packers come to SoFi Stadium as the scene for this historic series shifts away from the Frozen Tundra and to the warmer climes of Inglewood for the 100th meeting between the franchises.

With a bye week on the horizon, the Rams can either limp in at 1-4 or rally for some badly needed rest at 2-3.

Reality Check

Here's the tension that I think a lot of Rams fans are living in: I could make a case that the Rams deserve to be 0-4, and I could also argue they should be 3-1. They're a coin toss and a couple breaks away from either of those realities.

And that's what's agonizing, because we know the Rams are not a bad team. They've been dealt a tough draw and are solving for it in real time in the hopes of getting healthy before it's too late.

In moments like these, it's important to take an honest look in the mirror, assess what the small sample size of data says, and stay grounded in what we believe to be true.

This is still an above-average offense with the best quarterback in the NFC, playing behind a dinged up offensive line that is performing at league-low levels. Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay are making it work in just about every respect…except finishing drives.

And that's the rub, because this roster was built to put up 30 points per game, outscore opponents, and critically, put its defense in far more favorable positions.

Speaking of that defense, despite losing the biggest cheat code in franchise history, the Rams have a potent, home-grown pass rush. That's a formula for long-term success.

They targeted defensive backs in the draft and free agency with ball-hawking reputations to complement those rushers. Unfortunately, so far, they have one interception and it's on Injured Reserve with John Johnson III.

And that's where we get to the truth-telling and expectation leveling. The process of retooling their defense is only one cycle old. LA is spending less on that side of the ball than any team in the league by a very wide margin. Their current defensive two-deep has a mere seven players drafted in Top 100 – three of them are rookies, one is coming off multiple devastating injuries, and another was released at the end of training camp. By comparison, this week's opponent brings six first-round picks and four second-round picks on defense to Inglewood.

Just to finish the thumbnail, the Rams' kicking game is vastly improved, and we should take solace in that silver lining. Now the key is booting more extra points and fewer field goals (and we're tackling that topic next).

All this digital ink spilt to land on what I believe to be the core truth: This team hasn't come within an Ethan Evans kickoff of its best football yet.

I believe they're capable – but their margin for error is now razor thin.

Hunt for Red October

Perhaps the biggest reason I'm still bullish on the 2024 Rams is they've moved the ball as well as anyone. You don't rank among the leaders in red zone opportunities by accident!

But when you're 27th in converting those chances into touchdowns (seven for 17), you're going to lose more than you win in this league.

"You go back and look at the tape and there are opportunities to either get ourselves in more favorable positions on third down in the red zone or put the ball in the end zone with some things that we can do just as players," Matthew Stafford said this week. "Execution, fundamentals, technique, all of those kinds of things."

Per ESPN, he is 0-of-7 with an interception on throws to the end zone. It's the longest stretch of his career in which he has failed to complete a pass thrown to the end zone. But he hasn't lost his fastball, friends.

And Sean McVay didn't forget how to design game plans or call plays, either.

Just last year they were stellar on short fields, ranking eighth in the NFL in red zone conversion rate. Stafford didn't cough it up inside the 20-yard line all season.

"It all boils down to energy, edge and execution," the head coach told reporters regarding red zone solutions this week.

Run the Rock

There's a myth that McVay doesn't like to run the ball – and when you watch every snap of Rams football, believe me I've felt those feelings! However, nothing could be further from the truth; the data doesn't support it. LA has been and continues to be one of the more balanced offenses in the sport under his leadership, including in the red area.

There are also tons of extenuating circumstances in 2024. The 16-year quarterback often has a say in the matter (run or pass) at the line of scrimmage. Screens and checkdowns count as passes but are extensions of the running game. Jordan Whittington would have a rushing touchdown if not for a needless penalty in Detroit. The Rams have been trailing for the vast majority of the season; time and score impacts play-calling. And of course, injuries.

Now, what is factual is that the 2024 Rams are a more efficient rushing offense than they are passing. And the current offensive line is better firing off the ball than they are in pass protection. And Kyren Williams will be the only player with a Rams helmet on Sunday who has scored a touchdown this year ( Cooper Kupp has the other one). When they've been stubborn with feeding their lead back, good results have followed.

So if you're in the comments section suggesting the Rams just embrace those realities and lean into that run-first identity, especially until Kupp and Puka Nacua return and Stafford has his targets synched up again? I'm with you.

But I'm also willing to give the future Hall of Fame quarterback and greatest coach in franchise history some margin on this one. An injury-riddled month is a very small sample size in the football space, and each snap is its own story.

Enemy Has a Say

Plus, they've faced some very good defenses. Arizona is the only opponent the Rams have squared off against that isn't grading out as above-average on that side of the ball.

For what it's worth, Green Bay sits 19th in defensive efficiency coming into Week 5.

For more on that matchup, we invite you to go watch Between the Horns.

My keys focused on restoring situational mastery: reducing penalties, improved ball security, clock and timeout management, nailing fourth down decisions, and capitalizing in the kicking game (where the Packers have been vulnerable)…or better yet, don't kick at all.

Karty Be Kicking

Figures that Aaron Donald retires just before the Rams draft a player capable of challenging him in ping pong!

That story and more on this week's Rams Revealed, with rookie placekicker Joshua Karty.

Book It

Here's the best of what's left in my weekly notebook.

The Rams are defending a five-game home winning streak going back to last season, the longest at SoFi Stadium.

The Packers are on the short list of teams that have not been to Inglewood. After Sunday, Houston and Indianapolis will be the only remaining franchises yet to play a game at SoFi Stadium in the regular season.

I referenced it in passing earlier, but you'll never see a greater contrast in roster construction than the current snapshot of these two. Relative to their NFL peers, the Packers are spending the second-most on defense and second-least on offense. Conversely, the Rams have the most salary cap dollars devoted to their offense and the fewest by a wide margin allocated to their defense.

The Packers have a penalty problem: 34 in September is the fourth most in the NFL, after eight in last week's loss to the Vikings. Even head coach Matt LaFleur picked up an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. Rams have been flagged for the 10th fewest this season, despite it feeling like it's been raining yellow laundry in the secondary lately.

I hope Stafford is kept clean and left entirely untouched in the pocket this week. But if not, I'm going to be laser-focused on whether the referee is affording him the full protection of the rule book. Too often this season (and throughout his Rams tenure), that has not felt like the case.

Per ESPN, the Packers have the lowest pass rush win rate this season. So maybe that will help.

Stafford's 40 career touchdowns versus Green Bay are his most against any opponent. So are his 14 losses.

Green Bay has won eight of the last nine regular-season matchups with the Rams and 15 of the last 20. However, the Packers last beat the Rams in California in December 1966.

The Rams have led for 30:17 this season. Their largest lead of the season is 6-0 in Chicago last week. They have trailed by at least 9 points in all four outings. With just six points in the first quarter so far, this feels like the week they get an opening drive touchdown. If the Rams win the coin toss Sunday, I'd take the ball.

Here's hoping Darious Williams can be an immediate difference-maker in the Rams secondary in his return from the injured list, because Green Bay's Jayden Reed is second among pass-catchers in scrimmage yards (427), tops in yards per reception (19.8), and leads all receivers with 91 rushing yards as well, according to NFL Research.

Watching the West

And finally, after Seattle's first loss of 2024, a look at what is still a wide-open NFC West.

Those Seahawks have a premier bounce-back opportunity at home against the New York Giants (1-3). But after that, the road gets real: hosting San Francisco, at Atlanta, versus Buffalo and then the Rams.

The Cardinals (1-3) will be in Santa Clara this Sunday to challenge the 49ers (2-2).