The Rams' playoff spot is clinched and several key starters are set to rest in Week 18. Los Angeles will either be the number three or four seed in the NFC based on this week's outcomes. So, with 16 games in the books, let's see how this year's Rams team compares with others in the McVay era.
Los Angeles earned their sixth playoff berth since 2017 and, despite their 10-6 record entering the final week of the season, features a -14 point differential. Most of their games – 12 to be exact – were decided by one possession, and their per-game statistics were often comparable to their opponents.
Let's start simple with rushing and passing stats on both sides of the ball:
Los Angeles allowed less passing yards than their opponent for the second-straight year, but allowed slightly more rushing yards. In both cases, the difference was negligible. However, their ability to stay on scheduled offensively improved in 2024.
What determines success in this instance? In nflverse data, a successful play is one that yields positive Expected Points Added (EPA), which measures how many points a play is expected to add or lose based on historical context like field position, time and other factors. Success explains whether a play adds to a team's chances of scoring, or subtracts from it.
Los Angeles' passing success rate was their third-best in the McVay era, while their rushing success rate was tied for the second-best. This is significant because, while they may not have gotten as many yards as past years, the plays they ran positively impacted their chance to score at a higher rate than they had in many other seasons. So, while Los Angeles' offensive explosives were down, their consistency on a down-to-down basis was up.
Defensively, the Rams had their worst rushing success rate in the McVay era and tied their worst passing success rate. However, they supplemented this with a higher turnover total. Teams moved the ball more affectively against the Rams this season, but they created turnovers at a much higher rate than they provided them for the first time since 2018, their first Super Bowl appearance under McVay.
The Rams tied their second-best turnover ratio in the McVay era (+7) in 2024 and had their best offensive EPA per game since their Super Bowl-winning 2021 season. Now, these stats aren't inherently correlated, but their similar trajectory since 2017 is interesting for a few reasons.
First off, this season showed a major deviance because the Rams' defense, which is extremely young and lost a future Hall of Fame defensive lineman in Aaron Donald this offseason, caused 20 turnovers. The offense committed only 13, as Matthew Stafford's eight interceptions were his fewest in a full season as a Ram – meanwhile, two rookie safeties, Kam Kinchens and Jaylen McCollough, combined for as many interceptions on defense.
Los Angeles' encouraging turnover differential combined with consistent positive plays have put them in positions to win games. When most of a team's outcomes are decided by one possession, ball movement and security become that much more important, especially late in games. This season, the rams have won multiple games by causing late turnovers and sometimes turning those into points.
Resultantly, the Rams' +0.01 EPA per play on offense in the fourth quarter ranks ninth in the NFL.
Still, the Rams are having their second-worst scoring season in the McVay era, as injuries have hampered them throughout the year, averaging 21.4 points per game while giving up 22.3 points per game (fourth-most since 2017). They also have their lowest offensive third-down conversion rate (36.9%), although there have been glimpses of excellence in that area.
One aspect where the offense has excelled is the trench play. The Rams' 30.8% pressure rate allowed is their best since the 2021 Super Bowl season, via Next Gen Stats, and Stafford has taken less sacks than ever (28). With the amount of injuries the offensive line has sustained throughout the season, that's a remarkable feat.
Defensively, the front has also been a driving force, despite the loss of Donald. Their 35.2% pressure rate generated ranks 10th in the NFL and is 0.1% less than last year's mark, so it could surpass that with a good performance on Sunday.
Rookie outside linebacker Jared Verse, who was just named to the Pro Bowl, leads the way with 73 pressures, ranking fourth in the league and first among rookies entering Week 18.
The theme of this season has been battling adversity, which started from the very first week when offensive lineman Steve Avila and wide receiver Puka Nacua went down against the Lions. More injuries and a 1-4 record before the bye week ensued, followed by a 9-2 record since. It hasn't always been pretty, but Los Angeles has found ways to win games in a variety of ways, whether it's a shootout with the Bills or a field goal fest against the 49ers.
Each game is its own entity, so all these stats do is put the team's overall performance in perspective. Now, it's a brand new season starting next week – the postseason.
