It's a critical juncture in Los Angeles Rams history, and the stakes are massive for Thursday Night Football.
Win or lose, I believe the Rams have the right to hang in this fight and take a swing at the first place Seattle Seahawks in Week 9 before playing their cards at the NFL trade deadline.
But make no mistake, if they have designs of winning this division and a playoff push, these are the moments where the vision for this roster has to come to life.
The defense carried the day against a lackluster Las Vegas Raiders outfit. They'll need all three phases to get it done against the Minnesota Vikings.
And if they can find a way, with key contributors returning for leading roles, it changes the complexion of the West, the NFC picture, and the direction of the 2024 Rams.
Styles Make Fights
I have to tell you, though, that on paper this is one of the more discouraging matchups I can remember studying in quite some time.
Minnesota has the strengths to combat those of the Rams. And the Vikings also have the arsenal to exploit LA's weaknesses.
But you know what? The more bleak the better. Because it's the NFL and it's Thursday Night and you cannot predict football.
And no part of me is married to the notion that the performances we've seen through six games are indicative of the ones we should expect from the Rams moving forward, Thursday or beyond.
Free Refills
Wouldn't it be something if the Rams offense had its breakout performance against the best defense in the NFL?
If there's a reason to believe it's possible, his name is Cooper Kupp (especially if his running mate Puka Nacua can join him).
Per Next Gen, Kupp has been on the field for 54.5 percent of Matthew Stafford's dropbacks the last two seasons, and the passer rating is nearly 20 points higher with Kupp on the field (98.8) than off (79.4).
In addition to his impact in the passing game, one of my primary takeaways from Sunday's win over the Raiders was just how much Kupp, Nacua, and a healthy Jordan Whittington mean to the Rams running game. Each incremental snap those three can play on Thursday has an outsized impact on LA's win probability.
Pressure Packed
Monday, we had the pleasure of being joined by general manger Les Snead on a short week edition of the Coach McVay Show.
Among the fun topics to click through was reliving the hiring of McVay eight years ago, shortly after he ascended to the top of the Rams all-time wins list.
But with an eye to the present and future, we also discussed how the Rams are wreaking more havoc this season, in the months after Aaron Donald's retirement, than they did in the final couple seasons of the GOAT's career.
"That was the plan; that was the vision," Snead told us of how their pass rush scenarios have played out so far. "There is an element of we can conceptually walk through, visualize what it's going to be like without Aaron Donald… What's interesting is all of a sudden you start playing these teams and they're running plays against you that historically they haven't run because Aaron changed the math, they did things differently against the Rams.
"The offenses are like, you know what, Aaron Donald's not there we're really going to open up our playbook."
For more from Snead, including his take on Jared Verse's first few months in Horns and a preview of facing the Vikings, give this a listen.
Living on the Edge
It's waaaaaay too soon to declare first round victory, but the early returns are very much in the Rams favor when it comes to Verse.
After 14 straight offensive players came off the board in April, Indianapolis took the first edge defender in Laiatu Latu. Two picks later, Minnesota came screaming up the board to select Dallas Turner at 17. Then with the 19th overall pick, the Rams landed Verse.
This week, Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell said Turner "will be an absolute monster for us." However, he played just four snaps last Sunday against the Lions behind a deep and accomplished position group in Minneapolis.
Turner doesn't even qualify for PFF position grading because of this lack of playing time since recording his first NFL sack in Week 1. But Verse is currently ranked 14th among all edge defenders, and first among rookies, ahead of Latu (30th), Chop Robinson (53rd), and their Class of 2024 peers.
Here's the Kicker
Conversely, the Vikings may have struck gold by striking first with placekicker Will Reichard. He went at 203 overall, whereas Joshua Karty was selected with the 209th pick.
So far, Reichard has been aces: 12-for-12 in his field goal attempts, 18-for-18 on extra point tries
After a nice start, Karty has faltered, missing four kicks in the last three games (two extra points and two field goal efforts). It's not all on his shoulders – the entire operation from snap and hold to protection can elevate.
Under prime-time scrutiny, it's unlikely the Rams can afford any miscues on special teams against an opponent of this caliber.
Okie From Muskogee
The last team to start 1-4 but win the division?
Current Rams safety Kam Curl was on it, and a core contributor in the Washington Football Team's comeback as a rookie in 2020. Now he's trying to help LA do the same.
Last season, the Rams won two home games in five days and changed the course of their season. Curl remembers; he had a front row seat to that turnaround, too. (But no, he did not cut Cooper Kupp loose for that 62-yard touchdown against the Commanders.)
For more on the do-it-all defensive back, as he and the defense are coming off their best effort of 2024, check out this week's Rams Revealed.
Notable Alumni
There sure is a long list of former Rams on this Vikings roster, including running back Cam Akers, return specialist and receiver Brandon Powell, and tight end Johnny Mundt. Plus, head coach Kevin O'Connell, offensive coordinator Wes Phillips, assistant linebackers coach Thad Bogardus, defensive line coach Marcus Dixon, and even the vice president of player health and performance Tyler Williams have roots with the Rams.
I'm only half-serious, but nonetheless pleading for the Rams to take the ball this week should they win the opening coin toss. Having scored only six points all season in the first quarter, LA is long overdue for some first drive success, maybe even a touchdown. The Vikings have outscored opponents by a staggering 58-3 total in the first quarter (a surreal +55 margin)! No foe has scored against them in the first frame since the Giants in Week 1. So, why not shock the system? Then shock the world. Take the first possession and put a touchdown on the league's best defense. (If the Vikings win the toss and defer, the point still stands.)
Here are a few of the more notable nuggets from NFL Research this week:
Running back Aaron Jones has been a thorn in the Rams side as a Green Bay Packer. Now he's having an elite start to the season in the Twin Cities. Jones has at least one scrimmage touchdown in four of five career games versus the Rams, including playoffs.
Kupp has gone for at least 90 receiving yards in 9 of his last 10 primetime games.
LA is tied with Miami for the fewest passing scores this season (3). The Dolphins, however, have played four quarterbacks.
Kyren Williams (24) leads the NFL in scrimmage touchdowns since the start of 2023. Despite missing five games.
And a couple more courtesy of ESPN:
Kupp has accounted for 42% of Rams targets when on field this season, albeit in a sample size of less than six full quarters.
Meantime, Justin Jefferson has devoured 33% of the Vikings target share this season, the highest of any qualified player in the NFL. In fact, he's the only player over 30%. Jefferson (425 career catches) needs 9 receptions to pass Kupp (433) for the 3rd-most receptions by a player in his first five seasons in NFL history.
Watching the West
Finally, let's take a lap around the division. From the Rams standpoint, is it win the NFC West or bust?
That might seem a strange ambition for the team running last in the standings, sure. But when you look around (and ahead), it's more realistic than it is far-fetched. And it does seem like that NFC Wild Card bubble is going to be messy. Winning the West is the cleanest path to the playoffs, and comes with a guaranteed home game.
Arizona (3-4) travels to Miami this week, as the Dolphins prepare to get Tua Tagovailoa back.
Seattle (4-3) is home to Buffalo, one of the top five teams in the league.
San Francisco (3-4) will host Dallas, and while the Cowboys may be a mess, they're a desperate mess coming off a bye, which means they're supremely motivated and a lot healthier than the 49ers.
Win or lose on Thursday Night Football, the Rams still figure to be in this fight come Monday morning when they turn their attention to the Seahawks. Watching Red Zone on Sunday would be a lot more comfortable at 3-4, though.
