Every season in the NFL, a team goes worst to first.
But on the first Sunday of November, the Los Angeles Rams can do it in a day.
The NFC West is the only division in the league that has all four teams stacked within a single game, and we'll talk about the schedule and playoff picture at the end of this column.
For now, just know that after starting 1-4 and being written off, the Rams can fly home from Seattle on Sunday night atop the West with a bit of help from the Chicago Bears. But it all starts with finding the first road win of 2024 against the Seahawks.
Time Flies
Can you believe the last time the Rams touched down in the Pacific Northwest, Kyren Williams had yet to score an NFL touchdown?
14 months later, he now has 25, more than anyone else in the league. Williams has missed five games in that span, too!
As for Puka Nacua, what more can we add? Only a select few Rams fans had him on their fantasy teams going into Week 1 of 2023. After a debut for the ages – 10 catches, 119 yards – he was an overnight sensation and owners were rapidly changing their team names (Puka Shells had a great 2023).
On the defensive side, Kobie Turner and Byron Young combined on their first professional sack, dragging down Geno Smith. That duo would go on to lead all NFL rookies with nine and eight sacks, respectively.
As they go back to Lumen Field in 2024, they bring with them another rookie class full of difference-makers working to shift the balance of power within the division.
With or Without You (Coop and Puka)
And just as importantly, this time they'll have Cooper Kupp.
I knew it to be true, but was nonetheless gobsmacked to see it in print this week: Eastern Washington's favorite son has played just 18 offensive snaps against the Seahawks since 2022, according to NFL Research.
He did not play in either matchup in 2022 (ankle), was on injured reserve for Week 1 2023 (hamstring), and was just getting started in Week 11 before leaving that game in the second quarter.
Not since Week 15 2021, the closing stretch of his Triple Crown surge, has Kupp played a full game against the franchise he grew up watching. He caught nine passes for 136 yards and two touchdowns that day.
You don't need me to tell you how important his presence has been to Matthew Stafford and the Rams success. But let's detail it anyway, in conjunction with Nacua.
Stafford has 26 passing scores against only eight interceptions in 13 games when both Kupp and Nacua play. Compare those totals to five passing touchdowns and eight picks when either or both are missing.
That's how NFL Research frames it. ESPN paints the same picture with a different brush: Stafford's QBR improves by over 25 points when both Kupp and Nacua are available.
Here's how we frame it internally: When Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua are in the lineup, it's hard to argue that the Rams are anything other than elite offensively. With that nucleus intact, they rank first in the NFL in offensive EPA and yards gained, plus top five in the league in scoring and yards per play.
Scary Good
To the other side of the ball.
You may have heard the Rams defense was not good in September. But has an equivalent amount of oxygen and ink been devoted to how awesome they were in October?
After 4 weeks, LA ranked 31st in the NFL in defensive EPA per game. Since, they're 8th.
That's right, since coming home from Chicago, the Rams have been a Top 10 defense, including scoring non-offensive points in all three October games.
A lot has changed on that side of the ball, and there have been so many individual improvements. But the inflection point directly coincides with the return of Darious Williams at corner.
Meanwhile, Seattle is the inverse. According to league statistics, the Seahawks are allowing the most yards per play (6.5) since Week 4 after allowing the fewest (3.9) from Weeks 1-3. Said another way, they've gone from allowing 14.3 points per game in their 3-0 start to 30.4 points per game in their slide to 4-4.
Draft (or Don't) and Develop
But when you look at the Seahawks, and really most of the Rams' competition, they're loaded on defense. Remember earlier this season when we talked about the Packers having 10 defenders drafted in the first two rounds?
Seattle is similar.
Devon Witherspoon and Byron Murphy are recent first-round picks, and veteran Leonard Williams went sixth overall in 2015. Boye Mafe, Derick Hall, Jarran Reed, Johnathan Hankins are second-rounders. The vast majority of Seattle's snaps are being played by drafted defenders.
In stark contrast, 20 Rams played on defense against the Minnesota Vikings. Jared Verse was the only first-rounder. Six others were Day 2 selections. Five were Day 3 picks. And an astounding eight were undrafted college free agents. Their ability to overachieve elevates the possibilities for the 2024 Rams.
Tackle Box
As for those individual incremental improvements, here's the most pronounced to my eye: Verse was charged with 11 missed tackles in his first month as a pro – a challenging stretch of games against Kyler Murray, Brock Purdy, and Caleb Williams, three of the more elusive quarterbacks in the game.
But in the month of October, he only let one tackle slip through his grasp, according to Pro Football Focus.
We talked this week on Rams Revealed about the work Verse put in to make amends for some of those early missed opportunities.
Murphy's Law
Verse has only set foot in Seattle once, and it was on a visit to the Seahawks during the pre-Draft process.
They opted to pass on him, instead selecting Murphy at 16 overall. Verse went to Los Angeles three picks later. And while the dominant edge from Florida State continues to lap the rookie field in pressures, don't overlook the defensive tackle out of Texas. Murphy is 11th in PFF's pass rush win rate and is putting together an impressive first season despite missing three weeks with a hamstring injury.
This is a really big game for a Rams interior, especially center Beaux Limmer and left guard Justin Dedich, two more unheralded rookies who have outperformed their draft status by leaps and bounds.
Mc vs Mac
I'm reminded of a recent game the Rams played against a vaunted interior pass rush and another player thought to have "next Aaron Donald" potential.
As the winningest coach in Rams history gets set for his first meeting with the new youngest coach in the NFL, let's rewind to a rainy afternoon in Baltimore last December. That's when Sean McVay's offense ran all over Mike Macdonald's defense, minimizing the impact of defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike (formerly known as Justin).
McVay and Stafford ran it nine straight plays to open that game. They'd rush for 128 yards on the day, more than all but one Ravens opponent last season. (I hear you Rams fans – it probably could have and should have been more!)
Williams has scored in all 10 games he's played since that overtime loss, the longest active streak in the league. Per NFL Research, Seattle has allowed seven rushing touchdowns since Week 4 (only one team has allowed more).
So how much do we take from that epic battle in Baltimore last winter, especially as the 2024 Seahawks struggle to stop the run?
We discussed with resident expert Maurice Jones-Drew on Between The Horns.
Checklist
Last week, the Rams registered a first quarter touchdown for the first time all season. Next on the to-do list, a touchdown on the first drive of the third quarter, which has been a sluggish and turnover-prone one for the Rams: three points, two turnovers, and four punts (including three without gaining a first down).
As he reached the 80-win milestone, I had cause to look up how many Rams have scored touchdowns under McVay. The answer is 49. That's not a number readers in this space care for, so here are a few candidates to make it 50 on Sunday: Blake Corum, Jordan Whittington, Xavier Smith, Hunter Long, and former Seahawk Colby Parkinson. Or maybe someone on defense, like … Jared Verse?
After a season-best four last week, Stafford needs three passing touchdowns to pass Eli Manning (366) and move into 10th in NFL history. 29 completions would also catapult him past Kurt Warner (1,121) for the fifth-most in franchise history.
Nacua needs 112 receiving yards this week to surpass Justin Jefferson for the second-most receiving yards over a player's first 20 career games in the Super Bowl Era, per NFL Research.
D.K. Metcalf missed last week with a knee injury, and the Seahawks sorely missed him, going 1-7 on third down and producing only one touchdown on three red zone trips. With extra Bills defenders in the box, the Seahawks recorded a season-low 32 rushing yards. Metcalf could be back to join one of the most daunting aerial attacks in the NFL this week, and he scored in both games against the Rams in 2023.
The Rams have enjoyed a rest and rehabilitation advantage lately, playing only those two home games in a span of 27 days. That helped this roster get back on solid ground, and likely saved the season. But the shadow side is now they'll play 10 in a row (and hopefully a few more after that) with no reprieve, which is why Sunday feels like a must-capitalize opportunity.
The Seahawks have lost three straight at Lumen Field; the Bills and Niners beat them wire-to-wire most recently. If the Rams can win on Sunday, it will be the first time since 2008 that Seattle has dropped four in a row on their home field.
This is the first of two showdowns against Seattle. The rematch is scheduled for Week 18, the regular season finale. Can we speak big stakes into existence for that one, please?
Take a look through photos of the Los Angeles Rams on the practice field as they prepare for their Week 9 divisional matchup against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field.
The Night's Watch
If the NFC North is the best division in football, and there's ample reason to believe it is, then it's probably worth considering what's left for the Rams and their NFC West competition in the full season-long crossover.
The Arizona Cardinals host Chicago this week and still have to travel to Minneapolis in December.
The San Francisco 49ers play at Lambeau Field in November, then will host the Bears and Lions in December.
Seattle has a three-game gauntlet in December where the Seahawks host the Packers and Vikings then travel to Chicago back-to-back-to-back.
As for the Rams? We know the next time they'd worry about the NFC North would be in the playoffs. They went 1-3 this regular season, but took the Lions to overtime at their place and had the Packers and Bears dead to rights, only to let them escape.
In terms of Wild Card perspective, the North has played a TOTAL of TWO division games. Sunday, opposite the Rams and Seahawks in Seattle, the Lions (6-1) travel to the Tundra to face the Packers (6-2), and with overwhelming likelihood, someone is going to lose that game.
There are assuredly more Ls to be taken in the North. And potentially a few more for that division to hand out to LA's rivals in the West.
Watching the West
As we highlighted above, the Cardinals (4-4) host the Bears after Chicago melted down in Washington last weekend. The aftershocks of the Hail Mary loss are still being felt in the Windy City, apparently. Arizona, meantime, has three game-winning field goals… and a blowout win over the Rams.
The 49ers (4-4) are on a desperately needed bye after their Sunday Night Football win over the Cowboys. It's worth noting that San Francisco's next five opponents between now and Thursday Night Football against the Rams are all teams at-or-above .500. Conversely, the Rams have two opponents currently with winning records left on their schedule – Philadelphia and Buffalo.