In the final minute of the Los Angeles Rams documentary Locked In, Matthew Stafford is seated on a couch in his living room, reflecting on arguably the best statistical season of his career and anticipating his 16th.
"I want a gold jacket," he said while isolated in a single shot facing the camera, in his most candid statement on record about his Hall of Fame candidacy. "And I know what I've got to do to get there, and that's win Super Bowls. I want to do it at least one more time, maybe twice."
If Stafford wins another Lombardi Trophy, you can toss this column in a digital furnace because it won't be necessary. He'll have his bust in Canton.
But in the meantime, at the outset of the 2024 campaign – one that now centers on what's left of Stafford's prime, following the retirement of Aaron Donald – it might be worth a moment to check the standings.
Pro Football Reference has a valuable tool that monitors Hall of Fame resumes by position. Using their scoring system for quarterbacks, we can draw a few conclusions.
First, there are three retired legends who are locks as soon as their names come up: Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees.
Then, there's an active signal-caller who's irrefutably in even if he never played another down: Patrick Mahomes.
There's another in his prime who's going to be hard to argue against if he can make any postseason headway: Lamar Jackson.
And good luck keeping a two-time champion named Manning out, especially since he triumphed over Brady. Plus, Eli's done a nice job remaining relevant in his post-playing career.
As for Stafford's case, let's dig in. (You'll notice I'm not much for counting stats, though they absolutely matter to voters. I similarly don't put stock in Pro Bowl honors.)
We must concede that for now, Stafford is significantly below the threshold score of an average Hall of Fame quarterback. That and the fact he's never won an MVP or All-Pro honor mean there are headwinds working against his enshrinement.
But let's be serious – there's a heaping of context that has to be mentioned here. Since Stafford entered the league, 12 of the 15 MVP honors have been claimed by Rodgers, Mahomes, Manning, Brady, and Jackson.
The only other quarterback peers who have collected the top honor during Stafford's career are where this study gets interesting. Cam Newton won the 2015 MVP, then lost the Super Bowl. Matt Ryan was decorated the next year, then lost the Super Bowl.
Irrefutably, the best thing that Stafford has going for him is making that confetti fall at SoFi Stadium 12 months after asking for an offramp in Detroit. No matter your opinion of #QBWinz, he'll have that over Newton and Ryan.
Stafford's also going to benefit from what I'm loosely calling a game-recognize-game effect. The young superstars love him, as we heard from C.J. Stroud and Caleb Williams this offseason.
Those who know the sport love him. The All-22 sharks on social media stan him. And Stafford's surging on the back nine of his career, unlike Russell Wilson who would've been a stone-cold lock before he left Seattle.
Importantly, Stafford's Hall of Fame monitor score is comfortably ahead of several quarterbacks who are enshrined – Sonny Jurgensen, Bob Griese, Warren Moon, Joe Namath, Len Dawson, Troy Aikman, and Jim Kelly. With a decent season in 2024, Stafford should also go past Ken Stabler.
"I grew up watching NFL Films. I grew up watching the greats play and wanting to be a part of that," Stafford told us on this week's Rams Revealed. "Just having any kind of an inkling that could ever be a possibility is something that's a motivating factor for sure, but it's not the main one."
The main one is enjoying the circumstances he's in currently, and more specifically the opportunity to work alongside Rams coaches and players he clearly enjoys.
Which brings us to another element fortifying the argument for Stafford – the special places in history that he carved out for Calvin Johnson, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua. Megatron had seasons leading the league in catches, receiving yards, and touchdowns. Kupp authored arguably the greatest receiver season in NFL history with a Triple Crown and Super Bowl MVP in 2021. And with Kupp hobbled, Stafford fueled Nacua to a record-setting debut in 2023.
"I know what each and every single one of those guys went through to be on the field every Sunday," Stafford told us. "If you could see them Wednesday through Friday fighting like hell. Because all those guys that had those big seasons, their use rate was huge, right? So they're getting the ball, they're getting hit, they're getting tackled… It's incredible."
Here's what I think it's going to come down to. Even in the most golden era of quarterback play, there has to be a cap on how many can be considered all-time great. As the saying goes, it's the Hall of Fame not the Hall of Very Good.
Is there room in Canton for Stafford, Ryan, Wilson, Newton, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Philip Rivers? Perhaps, but I'm skeptical. Feels like a game of musical chairs. Maybe four or five seats for those seven candidates?
Fortunately for Stafford, he has runway left. In my estimation, he needs one more resume bullet point to solidify his positioning: an MVP, All-Pro honor, or a deep playoff run should do it.
Why not all three?
