Matthew Stafford is going to set career-highs in just about every category this season.
We know this because, if all goes according to plan, he's going to play a career-high 17 games in 2021.
But on a per-game basis, is there reason to believe the 33-year-old's best football is ahead of him in Los Angeles?
Sean McVay and Les Snead must think so.
And for many of the reasons discussed below, so do I.
But the primary reason I'm enthusiastic about the blockbuster move the Rams made before the Super Bowl doesn't have anything to do with Stafford. It has to do with a three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year.
Aaron's Era
Aaron Donald will turn 30 before the Rams see the field together again. He's an athletic marvel, and I venture into this discussion very hesitantly and humbly, fully expecting him to earn another six straight First-Team All-Pro honors.
Donald is under contract for four more years, by which time he'll have played his age 33 season, and realistically, I think that horizon is a fair approximation of what can be considered his prime.
Might he wreak havoc into his mid-and-late 30s? Sure.
However, the only man to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year after his 34th birthday was Reggie White in 1998 at 37-years-old.
If you can get better while Donald is still generating MVP discussion, and especially if you can get better at quarterback, I think it's incumbent upon the Rams to do so. Because his replacement isn't on the horizon, and even if he was, the likelihood of drafting said player is slim-to-none.
Clearly, this urgency isn't lost on the Rams.
Postseason Proof
"But Stafford's never won a playoff game," says the peanut gallery.
It's a bit paradoxical for a team that's in a Super Bowl window to be attempting to capitalize with a signal-caller who is 0-3 career in the postseason.
In fairness to Stafford, his last opportunity predates Harry and Meghan's engagement, and all three career chances were as the road team in the Wild Card round.
Andrew Whitworth hadn't won a playoff game before coming to Los Angeles, either, and that's worked out swimmingly.
Kneel Before The Comeback King
Perhaps Stafford's greatest attribute is his ability to steal victory from the jaws of defeat.
An astounding 42 percent of his career wins have been earned via fourth-quarter comebacks (31 out of 74), and no player has more such wins since Stafford's name was called atop the 2009 Draft.
While that's a welcome club to have in the bag, the goal for Stafford as a Ram should be to finish more games in victory formation than in the two-minute drill.
The Long Game
It was recently reported that Stafford played through a laundry list of wear and tear last season. And I asked Stafford how it feels to be seen as injury-prone, despite playing 16 games in nine of his 12 professional seasons, including all but one since 2011.
"Everybody out there is dealing with something," he said on the Rams Revealed podcast. "I'm excited to feel good going into this season and hopefully stay clean, stay healthy and help our team score a bunch of points."
Stafford confirmed that he'll be ready physically for whatever off-season program may come, and certainly training camp. To his point, as he joins forces with a contender, it should be stressed that his objective as a Ram is to be available for January and February. If some recalibrating needs to be done to prioritize protecting himself at the expense of a down, here's hoping that a change of scenery reinforces the need to play the long game in Los Angeles.
Great Expectations
So what are fair expectations of Stafford in his debut season in Horns?
To start, I'll take the under on his career-best total of 41 touchdowns in 2011, for a few reasons.
First, Jared Goff's 2018 was the closest approximation of this offense's apotheosis, and he passed for 32 touchdowns that season.
Second, if the Rams defense is even nearly as productive as they were a season ago, time and score may not necessitate putting up 30-plus points to win most weeks.
Thirdly, if Cam Akers and the running game deliver like we expect, 41 passing scores is a big number. Despite being an average offense in 2020, the Rams rushed for more touchdowns (19) than the scoring champion, Green Bay (16). They've averaged nearly 20 per season since McVay was hired.
What I'd be enthused about statistically is if Stafford can keep his interception percentage below 2.0, as he has for five consecutive seasons, and if he can set a new high-water mark for ANY/A (adjusted net yards per pass attempt).
But if I'm making a prediction for his traditional stat line in 2021, assuming 17 games?
67% completion | 4,900 yards | 35 touchdowns | 12 interceptions
Take a look back at Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford's 12 year career in the NFL before joining the Rams in 2021.
Georgia's Matthew Stafford, right, holds up a jersey with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell, after the Detroit Lions selected Stafford as the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall Saturday, April 25, 2009, in New York. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) during NFL football game against the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, October 4, 2020 in Detroit, Michigan. (Alika Jenner/NFL)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) during NFL football game against the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, October 4, 2020 in Detroit, Michigan. (Alika Jenner/NFL)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) during an NFL football game against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, October 18, 2020 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Perry Knotts/NFL)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) in action during an NFL football game against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, November 8, 2020 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Todd Rosenberg/NFL)
Detroit Lions' Jason Hanson (4) gets a hug from quarterback Matthew Stafford, right, after kicking a field goal in overtime of an NFL football game against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, Sept. 25, 2011, in Minneapolis. The Lions won 26-23. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) throws the ball during an NFL football game against the Houston Texans on Thursday, November 26, 2020 in Detroit, Michigan. (Ric Tapia/NFL)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford looks to pass against the Cleveland Browns in the fourth quarter of an NFL football in Detroit, Sunday, Nov. 22, 2009. Detroit won 38-37. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) drops back to pass during the NFL week 1 football game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, September 11, 2011 in Tampa, Florida. The Lions won the game 27-20. (AP Photo/Paul Spinelli)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) calls a play in the offensive huddle during the NFL wildcard playoff football game against the New Orleans Saints on Saturday, January 7, 2012 in New Orleans, Louisiana. The Saints won the game 45-28. (AP Photo/Paul Spinelli)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) passes against the Chicago Bears during an NFL football game at Ford Field in Detroit, Sunday, Dec. 11, 2016. (AP Photo/Rick Osentoski)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) during the first half of an NFL football game against the Detroit Lions in Chicago, Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009. Chicago won 48-24. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) calls a play during an NFL game against the Denver Broncos on Sunday, Oct. 30, 2011, in Denver. The Lions won the game, 45-10. (AP Photo/Greg Trott)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) dives for a third quarter touchdown that cuts the New Orleans Saints lead to 24-21 while being chased by New Orleans Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan (94) during the NFL wildcard playoff football game against the New Orleans Saints on Saturday, January 7, 2012 in New Orleans, Louisiana. The Saints won the game 45-28. (AP Photo/Paul Spinelli)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) throws during the first half of an NFL football game against the Los Angeles Rams, Sunday, Dec. 2, 2018, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Rey Del Rio)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) looks to throw behind the protection of the offensive line against the Kansas City Chiefs in the second quarter of an NFL football game in Detroit, Sunday, Sept. 18, 2011. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) gets set to run a play against the Chicago Bears during an NFL football game at Ford Field in Detroit, Sunday, Dec. 11, 2016. (AP Photo/Rick Osentoski)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) warms up before the first quarter of an NFL football game in Detroit, Saturday, Dec. 24, 2011. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) passes the ball against the Green Bay Packers during an NFL football game at Ford Field in Detroit, Sunday, Sept. 21, 2014. (AP Photo/Rick Osentoski)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) and wide receiver Calvin Johnson (81) celebrate their touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles during an NFL football game at Ford Field in Detroit, Thursday, Nov. 26, 2015. (AP Photo/Rick Osentoski)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) passes against the Tennessee Titans during an NFL football game, Sunday, Sep. 18, 2016 in Detroit. (Rick Osentoski via AP Images)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford celebrates a Calvin Johnson reception during a NFL football game in Detroit, Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2013. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) reacts in the second half of an NFL football game against the New Orleans Saints in New Orleans, Sunday, Dec. 4, 2016. (AP Photo/Bill Feig)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) receives congratulations from running back Joique Bell (35) after scoring a touchdown against the Seattle Seahawks during an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct. 28, 2012. in Detroit. (AP Photo/Rick Osentoski)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) gets set to run a play against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during an NFL football game at Ford Field in Detroit, Sunday, Dec. 7, 2014. (AP Photo/Rick Osentoski)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) celebrates after throwing a touchdown pass to wide receiver Golden Tate (15) against the Dallas Cowboys during the first half of an NFL wildcard playoff football game, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2015, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt (99) of Team Carter and Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) of Team Irvin are named as Defensive and Offensive MVPs following the 2015 Pro Bowl game at University of Phoenix Stadium on Sunday, Jan. 25, 2015 in Glendale, Ariz. Team Irvin defeated Team Carter 32-28. (AP Photo/Perry Knotts)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) scores on a 1-yard touchdown run against the Dallas Cowboys in the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Detroit, Sunday, Oct. 27, 2013. (AP Photo/Rick Osentoski)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) during player introductions before an NFL football game against the New York Giants at Ford Field in Detroit, Monday, Sept. 8, 2014. (AP Photo/Rick Osentoski)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) celebrates his touchdown run in the second half of an NFL football game against Seattle Seahawks, Sunday, Oct. 28, 2012, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys in the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Detroit, Sunday, Oct. 27, 2013. (AP Photo/Rick Osentoski)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) passes the ball as guard Rob Sims (67) blocks Buffalo Bills defensive end Chris Kelsay (90) during the first quarter of an NFL preseason football game in Detroit, Thursday, Aug. 30, 2012. (AP Photo/Rick Osentoski)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford is seen on the sidelines before an NFL football game against the Atlanta Falcons at Ford Field in Detroit, Saturday, Dec. 22, 2012. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) throws the ball during an NFL football NFC wild card playoff game against the Seattle Seahawks on Saturday, Jan. 7, 2017, in Seattle. Seattle won 26-6. (Peter Read Miller via AP)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) is interviewed after winning the Galloping Gobbler Award after an NFL football game against the Philadelphia Eagles, Thursday, Nov. 26, 2015, in Detroit. The Lions defeated the Eagles 45-14. (AP Photo/Rick Osentoski)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) passes during an NFL football game against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, October 27, 2013, at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. The Lions defeated the Cowboys, 31-30. (AP Photo/James D. Smith)
Detroit Lions' Matthew Stafford reacts after rushing for a touchdown during the first half of an NFL football game against the Green Bay Packers Sunday, Dec. 9, 2012, in Green Bay, Wis. (AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) rushes against the Washington Redskins during an NFL football game at Ford Field in Detroit, Sunday, Oct. 23, 2016. (AP Photo/Rick Osentoski)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) drops back to pass against the Denver Broncos during an NFL football game at Ford Field in Detroit, Sunday, Sept. 27, 2015. (AP Photo/Rick Osentoski)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) calls out the signals at the line of scrimmage during the first half of an NFL football game against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Jacksonville, Fla., Sunday, Nov. 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) drops back to pass against the New York Giants during an NFL football game at Ford Field in Detroit, Sunday, Dec. 22, 2013. (AP Photo/Rick Osentoski)
MVP?
Would that be enough to catapult him into the NFL MVP conversation?
Depends on the Rams record, of course. But I wouldn't be surprised.
It's certainly not on Stafford's mind.
"Obviously, at the quarterback position, if you play well, your team's got a better chance of winning games. And when your team wins, people talk about you more," he said. "I'm not worried about all that kind of stuff. I'm just going to go out there and try to play as good of football as I can, put up a bunch of points for this offense, and cheer on what's a heck of a defense."
Best In West?
Whether or not he can outperform Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers, it's not an outrageous position for the Rams to feel like they now have the best quarterback in the division.
Russell Wilson is more accomplished and statistically impressive; no one is arguing otherwise.
But Wilson against the Rams and Wilson against the rest of the NFL are two different quarterbacks, and in that context, I think it's perfectly legitimate to say, "Give me McVay and Stafford and I'll take my chances."
As an aside, it's also remarkable that there was a time this off-season – and that time still might come – when Kyler Murray could have been the only returning quarterback in the West.
Help Him Help You
This isn't just about Stafford making Los Angeles better, though.
I think we all believe that Sean McVay and the Rams can bring out the best the quarterback has to offer.
Mike Golic, Jr. summarized this as succinctly as anyone in the wake of the trade, delineating all the things we know improve the performance of NFL quarterbacks and how McVay's Rams have stayed on the leading edge.
From pre-snap motion to play-action diet to some of the best in the world at scheming and executing yards after the catch, there's ample reason to believe Stafford is one of the off-season's biggest individual winners.
That, as much as anything, is why Stafford's best might be ahead of him, not behind in Detroit.
Can't Spell Legacy Without "L.A."
Which begs the question: How long is the horizon for Stafford and the Rams?
Let's take the optimistic view that the plan comes to fruition and the longtime Lion delivers the best quarterback play the Rams have enjoyed since returning to Los Angeles.
While his contract covers 2021 and 2022, it's hard to imagine both sides wouldn't want to extend the relationship so long as that championship window is open.
Would there be another proven commodity available at quarterback to steward the rest of Donald's prime (and that of Jalen Ramsey, for that matter)? If and when McVay ever drafts a quarterback, would he be groomed and ready by 2023?
Would Stafford want to transition to a new system for his late-30s? Or would the thought of retiring as the all-time passing leader of two different franchises be appealing? What might an All-Pro nod, an MVP honor, and especially a ring do for his standing within this Golden Era of quarterbacks?
Those are questions without concrete answers, of course. But they frame the next two seasons for the Rams, as well as Stafford's opportunity to improve his legacy.
