WOODLAND HILLS, Calif. – A 1-4 start is far from what the Rams envisioned after a playoff run in 2023. But, their bye week served as a turning point last season – following a 3-6 start, they went 7-1 to clinch a wildcard berth. The Rams are hoping this year's bye will have a similar effect.
Three of the Rams' four losses have been by one possession, and the scoreboard hasn't told the whole story. There are undoubtedly some encouraging statistical trends that the Rams could ride into a turnaround, just like last year. Quarterback Matthew Stafford's high efficiency passing over the middle and the pass rush generating heavy pressure are some of the squad's encouraging tendencies.
Here are five interesting stats from the first five weeks of the Rams' 2024 season that are cause for optimism:
On throws over the middle, Matthew Stafford has the second-most yards (447) and third-highest completion rate (75.6%) in the NFL among qualified quarterbacks (min. 61 total attempts, via NFLverse data)
The middle of the field is a dangerous area to attack – it's a sign of confidence and competence when quarterbacks consistently target that area. This season, only 17.9% of passes and 24.6% of passing yards have gone over the middle of the field, but Stafford is not an average passer. He thrives in high-leverage moments and on difficult throws. 45 of his 192 passes (23.4%) and 447 of his 1238 passing yards (36.1%) have come over the middle of the field.
Stafford has always been an aggressive passer with a high IQ. Yet, he's also had at least one elite receiver during most of his career. This season, without his top two receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, Stafford has still attacked the middle of the field, trusting young weapons to make big plays. Stafford truly operates with a "next man up" mentality, and his frequent success over the middle of the field is proof of that.
Jordan Whittington and Demarcus Robinson are both top 12 in separation score on horizontally breaking routes (min. 10 routes, via Fantasy Points Data)
When the quarterback likes to attack the middle of the field, it helps to have players who can get open in that area. In an injury-riddled wide receiver room, Whittington (.345 separation score) and Robinson (.392 separation score) have stepped up and proved themselves as elite separators on horizontally breaking routes, most of which go over the middle.
There are some out routes that take these receivers toward the boundary, but the majority of horizontal routes take them over the middle. Whittington has been exceptional at settling between defensive zones to make receptions and maximize yards after the catch. Meanwhile, Robinson has excelled between the second and third levels.
Robinson ranks seventh in separation score on horizontally breaking routes, Whittington ranks 12th and Kupp is 20th. Those three players account for 19 of Stafford's 45 pass attempts over the middle because they get open at a high clip. Middle of the field passing is a significant part of the Rams' offense, one that will only grow when Kupp and Nacua return.
The Rams have the fifth-highest pressure rate (38.7%) in the NFL despite blitzing the QB at the ninth-lowest rate (24%) (via Next Gen Stats)
No team has generated as much pressure as the Rams with as little blitzing. The Los Angeles pass rush has been one of the league's best through five weeks while featuring two rookies – defensive end Braden Fiske and outside linebacker Byron Young – along with two second-year stars – defensive end Kobie Turner and Young. It's simultaneously one of the youngest and most productive units in all of football.
Verse has led the way, pressuring the quarterback on 18% of his pass rushes, which ranks 5th in the NFL. Fiske has also been elite from the inside with a 14.2% pressure rate, ranking 17th overall and third among interior linemen. Those two rank first and second, respectively, among qualified rookies in pressure rate. Young (12.8%) and Turner (10.4%) are also in the double-digit range for total pressures and percentage.
There's one problem with the pass rush: they aren't turning those pressures into sacks. Despite having the fifth-highest pressure rate, the Rams have the ninth-lowest sack rate, as only 6.6% of dropbacks have resulted in a sack. That's where the youthful inexperience has shown up. Once that is addressed, the pass rush will be in a very promising position.
The Rams rank first in rushing success rate at 52.8% (via Next Gen Stats)
Next Gen Stats defines a successful rush as one with positive expected points added (EPA). What that means is the rush is expected to add more points to the team's score than the average play in that specific context. So, although Kyren Williams hasn't been as efficient as last year (3.8 yards per carry compared to 5.0), the rushing attack has been effective more often than not. They are one of only four teams with a rushing success rate above 50%.
Williams always keeps his legs churning. On third and fourth downs, the Rams have picked up first downs on 72% of their rush attempts, ranking fifth in the NFL. The eye test may not show that the Rams are the most successful rushing offense in football, and a lack of explosive plays doesn't help that narrative, but they've done what they've needed to do. The Rams are efficient in their given circumstances, which makes a big difference on each drive.
The Rams have the second-highest pre-snap motion rate in the NFL at 77.2% (via NFLverse/FTN)
Over the past few years, plays that utilize pre-snap motion have produced better results than those that don't, regardless of the offense. The Rams use pre-snap motion on most of their offensive plays, and it always has a purpose. Offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur said "we're always trying to gather information, whether it's leverages, whether it's schematic, whatever (it is)," from that motion. The results speak for themself.
Los Angeles has a higher success rate (41.2%, ranking 5th in the NFL) and yards per play when utilizing motion. The functions are vast and significant every time someone is put in motion, no matter who gets the ball on that play. Since 2022 (when FTN started tracking motion data), the Rams have been more productive when they use pre-snap motion compared to when they don't. As a result, they've increased their frequency and types of motion every year. That has continued in 2024 (with motion up 10% from last season), and Kupp's return will only heighten that success, as many of those plays are designed around the effect of his motion.
